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More detailed meanings for the words highlighted in bold can be found in the “Glossary” section at the back of the booklet. Throughout this booklet temperature is given in the measurement of degrees Celsius (°C). Please refer to the glossary for translations to Fahrenheit (°F).
More detailed meanings for the words highlighted in bold can be found in the “Glossary” section at the back of the booklet. Throughout this booklet temperature is given in the measurement of degrees Celsius (°C). Please refer to the glossary for translations to Fahrenheit (°F).
= Executive Summary =
== Executive Summary ==
What will the world be like for future generations in the year 2050?
What will the world be like for future generations in the year 2050?
== What is the climate emergency? ==
== What is the climate emergency? ==
''In this section, we explore this phenomena known as “climate change”. What is it? What’s causing it? And why is this an emergency?''
Climate change is linked to the long-term warming of the planet. This happens because large amounts of '''greenhouse gases''' are being released into the atmosphere.
The atmosphere is an invisible layer around the Earth which contains many different gases. “Greenhouse gases” are a specific group of gases that can change the thermal balance of the atmosphere and warm the Earth. The main greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (produced by burning fossil fuels and deforestation), methane and nitrous oxide (produced from energy and agricultural practices).
One way to picture this is to imagine a small, enclosed room on a very hot day. The scorching sun is beating down on the roof, but inside the room there are no windows or doors for the heat to escape from. Because it has nowhere to go, the heat builds up in the room. Similarly, when there are too many greenhouse gases in the atmosphere with nowhere for them to escape from, excess heat is created in the atmosphere.
Since people in rich countries started to burn fossil fuels around 200 years ago, global temperatures have risen by 1.2 degrees Celsius (°C)<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ IPCC A.1]</ref>. Although it doesn’t sound like a lot, this small difference in the Earth’s temperature is already having far reaching impacts on the lives of many. Rising temperatures means the Earth is now experiencing more frequent and intense heat waves, forest fires and crop failures. It also means big changes to rainfall, with much more rain in some places and less in others<ref name=":0">[https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/ IPCC Sixth Assessment Report]</ref>, leading to drought and flooding.
The main greenhouse gas emitted by humans is carbon dioxide (CO2). Human activities have also degraded or destroyed many of the parts of nature that use carbon dioxide and remove it from the atmosphere, such as forests and soil.
Floods, droughts, heatwaves and hurricanes happened before climate change too, but climate science tells us that climate change makes these kinds of “weather events” more likely, putting millions of people at risk of losing their homes, being killed or injured or not having enough food to eat or clean water to drink.
Scientists say that unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, this situation will soon become too severe to do anything about<ref name=":0" /> — this is why it is a climate and ecological emergency.
== What is the ecological crisis? ==
''What impact are human activities having on the other species we share our planet with? In this section we take a look at why biodiversity is so important for human health and flourishing, and the role of indigenous communities across the world.''
Humans are part of a web of life that is much larger than our species alone. Human health is intricately interconnected with the health of animals, plants and the shared environment. As a result of how humans - specifically people in the world’s richest countries - interact with nature, some animal and plant species are going '''extinct''' forever. The pace of extinction is much, much faster today compared with the rest of Earth’s history<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Executive Summary]</ref>.
Biodiversity refers to all the varieties of life that can be found on Earth, such as plants, animals, fungi and microorganisms. Each individual species has a specific role to play in the health of the ecosystem. However, as a result of pollution, climate change, destruction of natural habitats and '''exploitation''' (such as overfishing), one million of the world’s estimated 8 million species of plants and animals are threatened with extinction.
The reasons for this are many. Forests across the world are home to the majority of the world’s different tree, bird and animal species, but every year huge patches of forest are destroyed when the land is converted for humans to use for agriculture, or other activities<ref>UNEP [https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/un-report-worlds-forests-continue-shrink-urgent-action-needed “As the world’s forests continue to shrink, urgent action is needed to safeguard their biodiversity”]</ref>.
The food system and agriculture is one of the biggest drivers of biodiversity loss, with agriculture alone being the identified threat to 24,000 species at risk of extinction<ref>UNEP [https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/our-global-food-system-primary-driver-biodiversity-loss “Our global food system is the primary driver of biodiversity loss”]</ref>. Currently the world's entire food supply depends on only about 150 plant species<ref>[https://www.bfn.de/en/activities/agriculture/agricultural-biodiversity.html The German Federal Agency for Conservation]</ref>. In the last centuries, there has been a focus on producing more and more food at lower and lower costs. This intensive agricultural production has come at the expense of the Earth’s soil and ecosystems, making soil gradually less fertile overtime<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup>.
Current food production depends heavily on fertilisers, pesticides, energy, land and water, and on unsustainable practices such as monocropping (farming of only one crop intensively) and heavy tilling (disruption to the soil structure with tools and machinery). This has destroyed the homes of many birds, mammals, insects and other organisms, threatening or destroying their breeding, feeding and nesting places, and crowding out many native plant species<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup>.
A lack of species diversity weakens ecosystems and makes them more vulnerable to diseases and extreme weather, and less capable of providing for the needs and wellbeing of humans<sup><sup>[2]</sup></sup>. Many important drugs used for treating illnesses like cancer are natural or are synthetic products inspired by things found in nature<sup><sup>[3]</sup></sup>. “Seed banks” across the world are used to store seeds and preserve genetic diversity, the largest of which is in Norway. This method is not fail-safe, however, and seed banks are vulnerable to budget-cuts, mismanagement and social and political upheaval. The Iraqi seed bank, for example, was looted and destroyed following the US invasion of 2003<sup><sup>[4]</sup></sup>.
The world population is increasing year on year, which means more and more people will be reliant on ecosystems to meet their basic needs. Loss of biodiversity is anticipated to accelerate in coming decades, unless urgent action is made to halt and reverse the degradation of ecosystems and to limit climate change. This is why it is referred to as an ecological emergency.
=== The role of original & indigenous people ===
On average these trends of biodiversity loss have been less severe in areas held or managed by indigenous peoples and local communities<sup><sup>[5]</sup></sup>. Comprising less than 5 percent of the world's population, indigenous peoples protect 80 percent of global biodiversity<sup><sup>[6]</sup></sup>. Living in harmony with nature is a fundamental part of indigenous peoples’ core values and beliefs, and indigenous communities have conserved biodiversity for millennia<sup><sup>[7]</sup></sup>. For example, in Cusco, Peru, a community of Quechua people are currently conserving more than 1,400 native varieties of one of the world’s staple crops — the potato<sup><sup>[8]</sup></sup>. Without this safeguarding of species diversity, many of these varieties might have gone extinct forever.
There are still so many species of plants, animals and insects which are undocumented or unknown by science. Most of this biodiversity exists on the traditional and ancestral lands of indigenous people. Indigenous cultures have managed to live in harmony with nature for millennia, and possess valuable knowledge for conserving and restoring ecosystems and cultivating biodiversity<sup><sup>[9]</sup></sup>.
Yet across the world, indigenous communities have had to leave their livelihoods and ancestral lands due to a loss of land because of large-scale development projects, or become climate refugees due to climate change related disasters.<sup><sup>[10]</sup></sup> For example in Alaska - the US state with the largest indigenous population - rising sea levels and increasing wildfires has forced the relocation of some indigenous communities<sup><sup>[11]</sup></sup>.
Due to centuries-long history of marginalisation and colonisation, indigenous peoples are nearly three times as likely to be living in extreme poverty compared to their non-indigenous counterparts<sup><sup>[12]</sup></sup>. The crisis in biodiversity is also entangled with the future of these unique and diverse cultures, knowledge systems, languages and identities.
== Why are we in a climate and ecological emergency? ==
''In this section we explore how some of the dominant ‘worldviews’ of the past centuries have shaped an attitude to nature that underlies the climate and ecological crisis today.''
The climate and biodiversity crisis is a complex problem and the result of many intersecting political, economic and social issues. One of the factors underlying the difficulty in meeting the challenge of climate change is some of the “worldviews” underpinning the climate and ecological crisis.
A worldview is something like a pair of glasses we use to see the world around us. Our worldview represents our core values and beliefs, it shapes how we think and what we expect from the world. It’s influenced by our own personal experiences, the beliefs and values passed to us from our families and the beliefs and values of the culture we grew up in. Our worldview affects how we see and act in the world.
Some people see humans and nature as being separate from each other. For example, we often hear talk of needing to “protect nature” or “spend time in nature,” as if nature is not part of ourselves, or we are not part of nature.
Today ‘'''economic growth'''’ is often used as a marker of progress and an indicator that standards of living are rising. However, economics, and specifically the idea of economic growth, is based on the worldview that humans can, and should, dominate and '''exploit''' nature<sup><sup>[13]</sup></sup>. This “worldview” is at the heart of many high-polluting nations, and has its roots 400 years ago in Europe, in a time period that’s known as the '''Scientific Revolution'''. Intellectuals of the time wrote about how mankind was superior to nature<sup><sup>[14]</sup></sup>, and how it was the right of humans to dominate over nature. The ideas that were first spread around this time were extremely influential over the following centuries, and helped to inform the laws, technologies, ways of life, customs and cultures that are still present in rich countries today.
Since the '''Industrial Revolution''', advancements in science and technology distanced people living in rich countries further away from their dependence on nature. Millions of people moved to the city and started working in factories, where they operated machines, instead of making things with hand tools and working on the land. In this period new technologies like the steam train, the automobile and the electric lightbulb rapidly transformed people’s lives, much like how mobile phones, personal computers and the internet have changed life today compared with 50 years ago. Through new technologies it was possible to dominate and extract from nature in a way that had not been possible before.
The Industrial Revolution allowed for the mining of fossil fuels on a mass scale. Burning fossil fuels has been the dominant source of energy for over 100 years, and this has driven economic development. As a result of this, rich countries like the United States of America, the United Kingdom, and the countries in the European Union have produced the largest amount of greenhouse gases over time<sup><sup>[15]</sup></sup>. Now, as countries like China and India follow the same development path as rich countries, more and more people are burning fossil fuels every year<sup><sup>[16]</sup></sup>. With its rapidly growing economy, China is currently the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases<sup><sup>[17]</sup></sup>. Historically the United States has been the largest emitter, meaning that the US has emitted the most amount of greenhouse gases over time. Within the five top contributors to emissions, the US also has the highest CO2 emissions per person<sup><sup>[18]</sup></sup>.
Human beings are biological animals, and Planet Earth is our habitat. Rather than being separate from nature, we are actually part of nature and extremely dependent on it for our survival<sup><sup>[19]</sup></sup>. Microorganisms in our gut aid digestion, while others compose part of our skin.
Pollinators such as bees and wasps help produce the food we eat, while trees and plants absorb the carbon dioxide we expel and produce the oxygen that we need in order to breathe<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup>.
Two of the major reasons for the ecological crisis is that we have assumed nature is infinite and we have not valued biodiversity in our decision-making processes. Biodiversity has important economic, biological and social values – all of which need to be taken into account in our decision-making processes. At best, decision-makers have tended to account for the economic value of biodiversity through markets, but fail to take into consideration their non-market, social and biophysical values. Hence, it is essential that the value of natural capital is used in decision-making to complement '''GDP'''.
A healthy environment is a prerequisite for a sustainable economy. It is becoming commonly accepted that the use of GDP as a measure of economic growth must be complemented with “inclusive wealth” which takes into account the health of the environment, and is a better measure of whether national economic policies are sustainable for the youth of today and future generations<sup><sup>[2]</sup></sup> <sup><sup>[3]</sup></sup>.
There are many different perspectives on why the climate and ecological crisis is happening, and what to do about it. However, despite three decades of research on the causes and impacts of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise<sup><sup>[4]</sup></sup>.
Some people call the climate and ecological crisis a “crisis of relationship” between humans and nature. In order to transition to a more sustainable future, they say we need to “make peace<sup><sup>[5]</sup></sup>” with nature and transform our economic, financial and productive systems<sup><sup>[6]</sup></sup>.
== What have international negotiations achieved so far? ==
''There have been several attempts in recent history to come to a collective decision about what to do about climate change and biodiversity loss. World leaders will meet in Glasgow later this year to talk about what to do about the climate emergency, and in China to talk about the ecological emergency.''
''In this section we learn about the international negotiations, what the goals of the Paris Agreement are and how they are being met so far.''
=== A) What have climate negotiations achieved so far? ===
Scientists have been predicting human-induced climate change for decades. '''The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change''' (UNFCCC) was signed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and '''Conferences of the Parties''' (COP) have been held every year since 1995. The purpose of the conferences is to discuss what to do about climate change, and to propose the measures to be taken by participating states to address climate change<sup><sup>[7]</sup></sup>.
In 2015, world leaders met in Paris for the COP21 conference. The results of that conference were that for the first time, world leaders reached an agreement on large-scale action against climate change. 196 participating states around the world agreed to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably 1.5 degrees celsius (°C)<sup><sup>[8]</sup></sup>. Nearly all countries made a commitment (a pledge or a “Nationally Determined Contribution”) to limit their greenhouse gas emissions and lower their contribution to climate change. These pledges were to be updated every 5 years.
There are two goals associated with limiting climate change in the ‘Paris Agreement’:
# Limit Global Warming to a maximum of 2°C by the end of the century (2100), and preferably 1.5°C
# Reach net zero emissions by 2050
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, with a probability of about 50%, net emissions of carbon dioxide will need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels and reach zero by 2050. To limit global warming to 2°C, with a probability of about 50%, net emissions of carbon dioxide will need to be reduced by 25% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels and reach zero around 2070.
If we are able to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally by 2030, the next stage would be for countries to reach “net-zero” emissions by 2050. Net zero means removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere at the same rate as they are emitted, or simply eliminating emissions altogether<sup><sup>[9]</sup></sup> <sup><sup>[10]</sup></sup>. This could be achieved through carbon dioxide being removed or ‘captured’ from the atmosphere through carbon-capture technologies, forests, soil and the ocean.
Since the Paris COP21...
* China’s CO2 emissions increased by 80 percent between 2005 and 2018 and are expected to continue to increase for the next decade, given its projected rate of economic growth.
* The EU and its Member States are on track to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 58 percent by 2030.
* India’s emissions increased by about 76 percent between 2005 and 2017 and, like China is expected to continue to increase until 2030 due to economic growth.
* The Russian Federation, the fifth largest greenhouse gas emitter, has not even submitted its plan to cut emissions yet<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup>.
Nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) is the term used to represent the pledges of each of the countries in the Paris Agreement to limit their emissions and limit global warming<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup>. Taken together, the NDCs determine whether or not the world will achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement<sup><sup>[2]</sup></sup>. If all the current goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions were met - and we don’t know yet if they will - this is likely to result in at least 3 °C of global warming by 2100, despite the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit warming to well below 2 °C<sup><sup>[3]</sup></sup>.
Because the current NDCs are not sufficient to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, new NDCs are submitted every five years to the UN. The goal is for each country to get more ambitious in it’s targets, based on the goals of the Paris Agreement. Each country establishes different goals. For example, the EU has committed to halving its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and the UK by 78% by 2035. France and the United Kingdom have made reaching net zero by 2050 a legal requirement. Japan, South Africa, Argentina, Mexico and the EU have all announced goals to reach net zero by 2050<sup><sup>[4]</sup></sup>. China pledged to reach ‘peak emissions’ by 2030 before transitioning to net zero by the end of 2060<sup><sup>[5]</sup></sup>.
Since Paris, some progress has already been achieved. However things are not moving fast enough. At the current rate, warming will reach 1.5°C by around 2040 - possibly earlier<sup><sup>[6]</sup></sup> - and continue to increase if action is not taken now. Evidence has shown that the risks associated with a 2°C increase in global temperature are higher than previously understood. Since the COP21, two reports from the '''Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change''' (IPCC) in 2018 and 2021 have stressed that the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming will be the loss of lives and livelihoods for millions<sup><sup>[7]</sup></sup>, with even greater adverse consequences for higher levels of warming.
The impact of the lack of quick and decisive action on climate change means that lots of money will be spent by governments across the world. There are estimates that extreme weather as a result of human-induced climate change could cost $2 billion per day by 2030. In addition to the cost, weather events and patterns will continue to change, and will adversely affect human health, livelihoods, food, water, biodiversity and economic growth<sup><sup>[8]</sup></sup>.
=== B) What have biodiversity negotiations achieved so far? ===
The first convention on biological diversity was held by the United Nations in Nairobi, Kenya, in 1992 and was signed in Rio De Janeiro in 1993. The convention recognised for the first time in international law that the conservation of biodiversity is a “common concern for humankind”. The agreement covers ecosystems, species and “genetic resources,” such as seeds.
In 2010 Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, a ten-year framework for action by all countries to protect biodiversity and the benefits it provides to people. As part of the Strategic Plan, 20 ambitious but realistic targets, known as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, were adopted.
In 2021, the 15th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD COP15) will be held in Kunming, China. The goal of this conference will be to review the outcome and achievements of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020.
Since the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity was signed in 2011...
* None of the goals in the international agreements have been fully met<sup><sup>[9]</sup></sup>.
* Across six international agreements to slow or reverse biodiversity loss, only one in five of the strategic objectives and goals are on track to be achieved.
* Nearly a third of the goals are not being met, or in some cases even becoming further out of reach. For example, none of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets were fully met by the target deadline of 2020.
* Analyses show that there has been moderate or poor progress for most of the targets aimed at addressing the causes of biodiversity loss. As a result, the state of biodiversity continues to decline<sup><sup>[10]</sup></sup>.
It is vital that Governments start to recognise the interactions between the two issues of climate change and biodiversity loss, and develop mutually compatible goals, targets and actions.
== What are the implications of climate change and the ecological crisis on… ==
''In this section we take a broad look at the scale and impact of climate change and ecological crisis on human health and livelihoods, ecosystems and biodiversity in regions across the world. These effects will be more or less severe depending on the level of action taken now.''
=== … human health and livelihoods? ===
Climate change is damaging to human health. It increases climate-related stress<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup> and leads to a greater risk of injuries, diseases, death and malnutrition due to extreme weather such as drought, hurricanes and flooding<sup><sup>[2]</sup></sup>. This risk increases with increased warming. Populations at higher risk include disadvantaged and vulnerable populations, some indigenous peoples, and local communities who are dependent on agricultural or coastal livelihoods.
Changing weather patterns can increase the likelihood of infectious diseases. Risks from some diseases that can be passed from animals or insects to humans, such as malaria and dengue fever, are projected to increase with warming from 1.5 to 2°C, including potential shifts in where these diseases will appear<sup><sup>[3]</sup></sup>. Studies have shown that climate change is associated with increasing rates of lyme disease in Canada<sup><sup>[4]</sup></sup>, for instance.
Climate change has an impact on economic growth in regions affected by extreme weather events. Countries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are expected to experience the largest impact on economic growth due to climate change if global warming increases from 1.5 to 2°C<sup><sup>[5]</sup></sup>, and even more with greater levels of warming.
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Many people across the world are living in regions that, by 2015, had already experienced warming of more than 1.5°C for at least one season<sup><sup>[6]</sup></sup>. The impact of climate change falls disproportionately on the poorest and most vulnerable. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, compared with 2°C, could reduce the number of people exposed to climate-related risks by up to several hundred million by 2050<sup><sup>[7]</sup></sup>.