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→D. Tipping Points – Can we predict what will happen next?
The next 10 years will be critical for adapting to and mitigating climate change. Being well informed about the risks and causes of climate change helps us to make the best decisions in the present, despite the fact that it will never be possible to predict the future with certainty. Climate change is happening much faster than efforts to address it, and the past is not a reliable indicator of the future<ref name=":1" />. Going forward, the future is uncertain. This understanding creates discomfort (a sense of things being out of control), but also opportunity<ref name=":1" />. There is still time to avert the crisis, if action is taken now.
The next 10 years will be critical for adapting to and mitigating climate change. Being well informed about the risks and causes of climate change helps us to make the best decisions in the present, despite the fact that it will never be possible to predict the future with certainty. Climate change is happening much faster than efforts to address it, and the past is not a reliable indicator of the future<ref name=":1" />. Going forward, the future is uncertain. This understanding creates discomfort (a sense of things being out of control), but also opportunity<ref name=":1" />. There is still time to avert the crisis, if action is taken now.
== <big>What action is already being taken?</big> ==
'''It’s been six years since the Paris Agreement. What action has been taken by countries so far to reduce emissions and biodiversity loss, and what more needs to be done?'''
=== <big>A. Energy transition</big> ===
One of the most important actions of the next decade will be to switch electricity generation to renewable sources and away from fossil fuels. While the growth in renewable energy is important for enabling the world to move away from fossil fuels, at the same time the increasing availability of renewable energy could simply lead to an overall growth in total energy use<ref name=":102" />.
Universal access to clean and affordable energy requires a transformation of both the production and use of energy<ref name=":112" />. To reduce coal use by 70 percent by 2030 means a five-fold increase in wind and solar energy, as well as phasing out and closing 2,400 coalfired power stations globally within the next decade<ref name=":92" />. Measures taken to replace fossil-fuel energy with renewable energy will cost money, but it will ultimately be cheaper to mitigate climate change than to be forced to adapt to climate change<ref>[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0071-9/ Burke et al, Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets]</ref>.
Additionally, there are many economic and health benefits from transitioning to a low-carbon economy, such as a reduction in urban air pollution that is caused in large part by petrol and diesel powered vehicles<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Section 4.1]</ref><ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ IPCC 2018 Global Warming of 1.5ºC, Chapter 3, section 5.2]</ref><ref>[https://www.unep.org/resources/global-environment-outlook-6 Global Environment Outlook 6 2019], Key Message 19, Chapter 24.4, and Box 24.1</ref>.
Solar and wind energy are now cheaper than coal or gas-fired plants in most countries, and solar projects offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen<ref>[https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2020]</ref>.
The early retirement or repurposing of energy infrastructure is necessary to meet Paris commitments. Many studies show that simply allowing existing fossil fuel facilities to run until their expected end of life would not keep emissions below both 1.5°C and 2°C<ref name=":102" />.
Increasing the supply of clean energy is important for achieving sustainable economic growth while limiting global warming. Clean energy has the potential to reduce poverty and indoor and outdoor air pollution and provide critical services such as communications, lighting and water pumping<ref name=":2">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.107</ref>.
Improving and increasing energy efficiency could reduce CO2 emissions by 40 percent by 2040. This would require efficiency gains in transportation (for example, electric cars), in households (more efficient houses and appliances) and in industry. Households worldwide could also save more than $500 billion dollars per year in energy bills by increasing their energy efficiency (electricity, natural gas for heating and cooking and fuel for transportation)<ref name=":92" />.
=== <big>B. Conservation and restoration</big> ===
The issues of climate change, loss of biodiversity, land degradation, and air and water pollution are interconnected. A key challenge of the next decades will be to recognize the interconnected nature of these issues, and make sure that actions to address one do not have unintended consequences on the other. For example, the replacing of native vegetation with monoculture crops for supplying bioenergy<ref name=":2" />, or the destruction of ecosystems to build renewable energy infrastructure