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Line 246: − − − <!--T:110--> − <!--T:111-->+ − − − − <!--T:112--> − Climate change effects will interact with other risks such as food security, and social and political factors. One example of this can be found in parts of West Africa. In the Sahel, desertification means that cattle herders are migrating southward with their livestock in search of grazing pastures. This has led to increasing violent clashes between these herders and farmers in the south, whose crops are being destroyed and consumed by the trespassing cattle of the nomadic herders. As a consequence, farms and farmlands are being abandoned from fear of violence, creating food shortages and threats to food security. − − <!--T:113-->+ − + − <!--T:114--> − Crop and livestock production is projected to decrease and may even have to be abandoned in parts of Europe’s southern and Mediterranean regions due to the increased negative impacts of climate change<ref>[https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/climate-change-threatens-future-of EEA “Climate Change Threatens Futures of Farming in Europe]</ref>. − <!--T:115-->+ − − <!--T:116-->+ − − + − Rising CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations are expected to reduce the protein and nutrient content of major cereal crops, which would further reduce food and nutritional security<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Background Section 3.7 </ref>. − === <big>… water security?</big> === <!--T:118-->+ − − <!--T:119--> − <!--T:120-->+ − − <!--T:121--> − <!--T:122--> − + − <!--T:124--> − <!--T:125--> − <!--T:126--> − <!--T:127-->+ − + − + − − <!--T:129-->+ − − <!--T:130-->+ − − <!--T:131--> − <!--T:132--> + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + − <!--T:133--> − Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to − + − millennia, especially changes in the ocean circulation, ice sheets and global sea level. − + − + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + − <!--T:190--> − <!--T:191--> − <!--T:192--> − <!--T:193--> − <!--T:194--> − <!--T:195--> − <!--T:196--> − <!--T:197--> − <!--T:198--> − <!--T:199--> − <!--T:200-->+ − − <!--T:201--> − <!--T:202-->+ − + + + + − <!--T:203-->+ − − <!--T:204-->+ − − <!--T:205-->+ − − <!--T:206-->+ − − <!--T:207-->+ − − <!--T:208--> − '''Negative emissions:''' Negative emissions is one of the terms used for activities that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. − <!--T:209-->+ − − <!--T:210--> − '''Pollution:''' The presence in or introduction into the environment of a substance which has harmful or poisonous effects. Pollution can be created by human activity, for example rubbish in the oceans or chemical run-off from agriculture. − <!--T:211-->+ − − <!--T:212--> − By the end of this period, science had replaced Christianity as the focal point of European civilization. − <!--T:213-->+ − − <!--T:214--> − <!--T:215--> − <!--T:216--> − <!--T:217--> − <!--T:218--> − <!--T:219--> − <!--T:220--> − <!--T:221--> − <!--T:222--> − <!--T:223--> − <!--T:224--> + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
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{{InfoBox Booklets|title_of_content=Information Booklet|cover_image=GA Information Booklet Cover Image.jpg|link_of_the_credits_page=https://wiki.globalassembly.org/Information_Booklet#Credits|data_published=Oct 2021|original_language=English|link_of_the_Translated_Versions=Community:Contextualizations_and_Translations_of_Information_Booklet|link_of_the_file=https://globalassembly.org/resources/downloads/Final-information-booklet.pdf|credits_text=Check credits below}}{{GA Content Header}}
Make sure to check the [[About Information Booklet|About]] page for more context before reading the Information Booklet
== <big>Introduction</big> ==
== <big>Introduction</big> ==
<big>The Global Assembly is a gathering of people from across the world to discuss the '''climate and ecological crisis'''.</big>
<big>The Global Assembly is a gathering of people from across the world to discuss the '''climate and ecological crisis'''.</big>
=== <big>What is a citizens’ assembly?</big> ===
===<big>What is a citizens’ assembly?</big>===
A citizens’ assembly is a group of people from different walks of life, who come together to learn about a certain topic, to deliberate on possible action, make proposals to governments and leaders and generate ideas to galvanise wider change. Members of a citizens’ assembly represent a miniature version of the place in question (say, a country or city, or in this case the world), based on demographic criteria such as gender, age, income and education level.
A citizens’ assembly is a group of people from different walks of life, who come together to learn about a certain topic, to deliberate on possible action, make proposals to governments and leaders and generate ideas to galvanise wider change. Members of a citizens’ assembly represent a miniature version of the place in question (say, a country or city, or in this case the world), based on demographic criteria such as gender, age, income and education level.
Now that the goals of the Paris Agreement have been set, the Glasgow climate talks should be about creating a more detailed roadmap of how to achieve them. Some important considerations will include how to agree on more effective near-term emission reductions. For example, transitioning away from fossil fuels, improving the use of energy, limiting deforestation, and converting net-zero pledges into action.
Now that the goals of the Paris Agreement have been set, the Glasgow climate talks should be about creating a more detailed roadmap of how to achieve them. Some important considerations will include how to agree on more effective near-term emission reductions. For example, transitioning away from fossil fuels, improving the use of energy, limiting deforestation, and converting net-zero pledges into action.
= <big>Part 1</big> =
= Content =
== <big>What is the climate crisis?</big> ==
== <big>What is the climate crisis?</big> ==
''In this section, we explore the phenomena known as “climate change”. What is it? What’s causing it? And why is it urgent?''
''In this section, we explore the phenomena known as “climate change”. What is it? What’s causing it? And why is it urgent?''
Floods, droughts, heatwaves and hurricanes happened before climate change too, but climate science tells us that climate change makes these kinds of extreme “weather events” more likely or intense, putting millions of people in all regions of the world at risk of losing their homes, being killed or injured or not having enough food to eat or clean water to drink.
Floods, droughts, heatwaves and hurricanes happened before climate change too, but climate science tells us that climate change makes these kinds of extreme “weather events” more likely or intense, putting millions of people in all regions of the world at risk of losing their homes, being killed or injured or not having enough food to eat or clean water to drink.
== <big>What is the ecological crisis?</big> ==
== <big>What is the ecological crisis?</big> ==
'''''What impact are human activities having on the other species we share our planet with? In this section we take a look at why biodiversity is so important for human health and flourishing, and the role of indigenous communities across the world.'''''
'''''What impact are human activities having on the other species we share our planet with? In this section we take a look at why biodiversity is so important for human health and flourishing, and the role of indigenous communities across the world'''''.
<ref name=":42">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Executive Summary]</ref>.
Humans are part of a web of life that is much larger than our species alone. Human health is intricately interconnected with the health of animals, plants and the shared environment. As a result of how humans – particularly people in the world’s richest countries – interact with nature, some animal and plant species are becoming '''extinct'''. The pace of extinction is much faster today compared with the rest of history<ref name=":42">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Executive Summary]</ref>
In 2010, parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, a ten-year framework for action by all countries to protect biodiversity and the benefits it provides to people. As part of the strategic plan, 20 ambitious but realistic targets, known as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, were adopted<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf Making Peace with Nature Report], p.71</ref>.
In 2010, parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, a ten-year framework for action by all countries to protect biodiversity and the benefits it provides to people. As part of the strategic plan, 20 ambitious but realistic targets, known as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, were adopted<ref name=":0">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf Making Peace with Nature Report], p.71</ref>.
Food security means that all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs for an active and healthy life<ref>[https://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/food_security.shtml#:~:text=What%20is%20food%20security%3F,a%20productive%20and%20healthy%20life. United Nations' Committee on World Food Security]</ref>.<br>
Food security means that all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs for an active and healthy life<ref>[https://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/food_security.shtml#:~:text=What%20is%20food%20security%3F,a%20productive%20and%20healthy%20life. United Nations' Committee on World Food Security]</ref>.<br>
Food security is threatened by the loss of pollinators and fertile soil as a result of the ecological crisis, and the Earth’s capacity to sustain growing needs for nutritious food will continue to weaken in the face of ongoing environmental declines.
Food security is threatened by the loss of pollinators and fertile soil as a result of the ecological crisis, and the Earth’s capacity to sustain growing needs for nutritious food will continue to weaken in the face of ongoing environmental declines.
Climate change has already affected food security due to warming, changing rain patterns and a greater frequency of extreme weather. Changes in weather means that in recent years crop yields have declined in some regions, and increased in others. Climate change is affecting food security in drylands, particularly those in Africa, and high mountain regions of Asia and South America<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/ IPCC 2019 Special Report on Land] SPM Section A </ref>. desertification means that cattle herders are migrating southward with their livestock in search of grazing pastures. This has led to increasing violent clashes between these herders and farmers in the south, whose crops are being destroyed and consumed by the trespassing cattle of the nomadic herders. As a consequence, farms and farmlands are being abandoned from fear of violence, creating food shortages and threats to food security.
Climate change has already affected food security due to warming, changing rain patterns and a greater frequency of extreme weather. Changes in weather means that in recent years crop yields have declined in some regions, and increased in others. Climate change is affecting food security in drylands, particularly those in Africa, and high mountain regions of Asia and South America<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/ IPCC 2019 Special Report on Land] SPM Section A </ref>.
Reductions in food availability are expected to be more significant at 2°C compared to 1.5°C, and even greater with larger temperature changes, especially in the Sahel, southern Africa, the Mediterranean, central Europe and the Amazon<ref name=":15">[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ IPCC Section B5.3]</ref> with smaller yields of maize, rice, wheat and other cereal crops, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America.
Reductions in food availability are expected to be more significant at 2°C compared to 1.5°C, and even greater with larger temperature changes, especially in the Sahel, southern Africa, the Mediterranean, central Europe and the Amazon<ref name=":15">[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ IPCC Section B5.3]</ref> with smaller yields of maize, rice, wheat and other cereal crops, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America.
Crop and livestock production is projected to decrease and may even have to be abandoned in parts of Europe’s southern and Mediterranean regions due to the increased negative impacts of climate change<ref>[https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/climate-change-threatens-future-of EEA “Climate Change Threatens Futures of Farming in Europe”]</ref>
With rising temperatures it’s expected that livestock will be affected, depending on the extent of changes in available animal feed, spread of diseases, and water resource availability<ref name=":15" />. There is also evidence that climate change has resulted in changes to agricultural pests and diseases<ref name=":18">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/ IPCC Summary for Policy Makers]</ref>.
With rising temperatures it’s expected that livestock will be affected, depending on the extent of changes in available animal feed, spread of diseases, and water resource availability<ref name=":15" />. There is also evidence that climate change has resulted in changes to agricultural pests and diseases<ref name=":18">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/ IPCC Summary for Policy Makers]</ref>.
Climate change risks to food security and access are expected to become high between 1.2-3.5°C of warming, very high between 3-4°C warming, and catastrophic at 4°C and above. Rising CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations are expected to reduce the protein and nutrient content of major cereal crops, which would further reduce food and nutritional security<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Background Section 3.7 </ref>.
Climate change risks to food security and access are expected to become high between 1.2-3.5°C of warming. Very high between 3-4°C warming, and catastrophic at 4°C and above.
<!--T:117-->
=== <big>… water security?</big> ===
Water security is measured by water availability, water demand and quality (levels of pollution) in water sources.
Water security is measured by water availability, water demand and quality (levels of pollution) in water sources.
Pressure on ecosystems as a result of the ecological crisis has resulted in the depletion or degradation of freshwater sources.
Pressure on ecosystems as a result of the ecological crisis has resulted in the depletion or degradation of freshwater sources.
About 80 percent of the world’s population already suffers from serious threats to water security<ref name=":162" />. It’s clear that climate change can affect the availability of water and threaten water security due to changes in rain patterns. In general, rain is increasing in tropical and high-altitude regions, and decreasing in the sub-tropics due to climate change<ref>IPCC 2014 WG II SPM A1, and Assessment Box SPM2 Table 1</ref>. In 2017, around 2.2 billion people did not have access to safely managed drinking water. More than 2 billion people globally live in river basins suffering water stress, where the need for freshwater exceeds 40 percent of what is available. In some countries in Africa and Asia, needs exceed 70 percent of the freshwater available<ref name=":17">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature,] SPM Section 4.2 </ref>
About 80 percent of the world’s population already suffers from serious threats to water security<ref name=":16">[https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/ IPCC]</ref>. It’s clear that climate change can affect the availability of water and threaten water security due to changes in rain patterns. In general, rain is increasing in tropical and high-altitude regions, and decreasing in the sub-tropics due to climate change<ref>IPCC 2014 WG II SPM A1, and Assessment Box SPM2 Table 1</ref>. In 2017, around 2.2 billion people did not have access to safely managed drinking water. More than 2 billion people globally live in river basins suffering water stress, where the need for freshwater exceeds 40 percent of what is available. In some countries in Africa and Asia, needs exceed 70 percent of the freshwater available<ref name=":17">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature,] SPM Section 4.2 </ref>.
Lack of access to clean water is also a food security issue, as the primary use of freshwater worldwide is for watering crops (irrigation), currently accounting for 70 percent of freshwater withdrawals<ref name=":4">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Executive Summary] </ref>. About 1.2 billion people live in areas where severe water shortages and scarcity challenge agriculture<ref>[http://www.fao.org/3/cb1447en/online/cb1447en.html#chapter-executive_summary Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN]</ref>. Over the last century, population growth, industrial and agricultural activities and living standards have created more demand for water across the world<ref name=":17" />.
Lack of access to clean water is also a food security issue, as the primary use of freshwater worldwide is for watering crops (irrigation), currently accounting for 70 percent of freshwater withdrawals<ref name=":4">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Executive Summary] </ref>. About 1.2 billion people live in areas where severe water shortages and scarcity challenge agriculture<ref>[http://www.fao.org/3/cb1447en/online/cb1447en.html#chapter-executive_summary Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN]</ref>. Over the last century, population growth, industrial and agricultural activities and living standards have created more demand for water across the world<ref name=":17" />.
Wetlands are being lost globally, threatening water quality in many regions of the world.
Wetlands are being lost globally, threatening water quality in many regions of the world.
=== <big>… land-based biodiversity and ecosystems?</big> === <!--T:123-->
=== <big>… land-based biodiversity and ecosystems?</big> ===
Ecosystems are the planet's life-support systems, for the human species and all other forms of life. Over the past decades, humans have changed natural ecosystems rapidly and extensively. This transformation of the planet has resulted in benefits for human wellbeing (for example, increased lifespan) and economic development, but not all regions and groups of people have gained from this process, and many have been harmed. The full costs of these gains are only just becoming apparent<ref>[https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/43354/9241563095.pdf WHO Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing]</ref>. Economic, social and technological advances have come at the expense of the Earth’s capacity to sustain current and future human wellbeing<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.21</ref>.
Ecosystems are the planet's life-support systems, for the human species and all other forms of life. Over the past decades, humans have changed natural ecosystems rapidly and extensively. This transformation of the planet has resulted in benefits for human wellbeing (for example, increased lifespan) and economic development, but not all regions and groups of people have gained from this process, and many have been harmed. The full costs of these gains are only just becoming apparent<ref>[https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/43354/9241563095.pdf WHO Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing]</ref>. Economic, social and technological advances have come at the expense of the Earth’s capacity to sustain current and future human wellbeing<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.21</ref>.
As we have already covered in section two, species are currently going extinct tens to hundreds of times faster than the normal extinction rate<ref>[https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf IPBES 2019 Global Assessmen]t SPM Key Messages A5, Background Paragraph 6 </ref><ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Section 3.2 </ref>. Climate change increases the risk of some species becoming extinct, with 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species at greater risk of extinction under 2°C warming, and even higher numbers with greater warming<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Section 3.7 </ref>. It is estimated that more than half a million species have insufficient habitat for their long-term survival, and are committed to early extinction, many within decades, unless their habitats are restored<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.71</ref>.
As we have already covered in section two, species are currently going extinct tens to hundreds of times faster than the normal extinction rate<ref>[https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf IPBES 2019 Global Assessmen]t SPM Key Messages A5, Background Paragraph 6 </ref><ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Section 3.2 </ref>. Climate change increases the risk of some species becoming extinct, with 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species at greater risk of extinction under 2°C warming, and even higher numbers with greater warming<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Section 3.7 </ref>. It is estimated that more than half a million species have insufficient habitat for their long-term survival, and are committed to early extinction, many within decades, unless their habitats are restored<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.71</ref>.
It’s projected that at 2°C of warming, 13 percent of ecosystems will transform from one ecosystem landscape to another — for example from a rainforest to a savannah ecosystem<ref name=":18" />.
It’s projected that at 2°C of warming, 13 percent of ecosystems will transform from one ecosystem landscape to another — for example from a rainforest to a savannah ecosystem<ref name=":18" />.
There is a high confidence that rising global temperatures will result in shifts of climate zones, with new, hot climates being created in tropical regions<ref name=":19">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/ IPCC Chapter 2: Land-climate interactions]</ref>, longer fire weather seasons and increased risk of fires in drought-prone regions<ref name=":19" />.
There is a high confidence that rising global temperatures will result in shifts of climate zones, with new, hot climates being created in tropical regions<ref name=":19">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/ IPCC Chapter 2: Land-climate interactions]</ref>, longer fire weather seasons and increased risk of fires in drought-prone regions<ref name=":19" />.
In 2020, less than a quarter of the global land surface still functions in a nearly natural way, with its biodiversity largely intact. This quarter is mostly located in dry, cold, or mountainous areas, and thus far has a low human population and has undergone little transformation<ref name=":0" />.
In 2020, less than a quarter of the global land surface still functions in a nearly natural way, with its biodiversity largely intact. This quarter is mostly located in dry, cold, or mountainous areas, and thus far has a low human population and has undergone little transformation<sup><sup>[10]</sup></sup>.
=== <big>… oceans and marine life?</big> ===
=== <big>… oceans and marine life?</big> === <!--T:128-->
The ocean is the home of biodiversity ranging from microbes to marine mammals, and a wide range of ecosystems. Two thirds of the oceans are now impacted by humans. Detrimental human activities include overfishing, coastal and offshore infrastructure and shipping, ocean acidification and waste and nutrient runoff. One third of wild marine fish stocks were overharvested in 2015, and depletion of fish stocks due to overfishing is a huge risk to food security. Fertilisers entering coastal ecosystems have produced more than 400 “dead zones” totaling more than 245,000 km<sup>2</sup> – an area bigger than the Ecuador or the UK<ref name=":20">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.16</ref>. In 2021, a leak at an abandoned fertiliser plant in Florida caused an “algal bloom” that resulted in the death of tonnes of marine life<ref>The Guardian [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/04/florida-imminent-pollution-catastrophe-phosphate-retention-pond-bradenton-piney-point-desantis 1], [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/17/florida-red-tide-fertilizer-plant-spill 2]</ref>.
The ocean is the home of biodiversity ranging from microbes to marine mammals, and a wide range of ecosystems. Two thirds of the oceans are now impacted by humans. Detrimental human activities include overfishing, coastal and offshore infrastructure and shipping, ocean acidification and waste and nutrient runoff. One third of wild marine fish stocks were overharvested in 2015, and depletion of fish stocks due to overfishing is a huge risk to food security. Fertilisers entering coastal ecosystems have produced more than 400 “dead zones” totaling more than 245,000 km<sup>2</sup> – an area bigger than the Ecuador or the UK<ref name=":20">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.16</ref>. In 2021, a leak at an abandoned fertiliser plant in Florida caused an “algal bloom” that resulted in the death of tonnes of marine life<ref>The Guardian [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/04/florida-imminent-pollution-catastrophe-phosphate-retention-pond-bradenton-piney-point-desantis 1], [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/17/florida-red-tide-fertilizer-plant-spill 2]</ref>.
Plastic pollution in the oceans has increased tenfold since 1980, constituting 60–80 percent of waste found in the oceans. Plastic can be found in all oceans at all depths and concentrates in the ocean currents. Ocean plastic litter causes ecological impacts including entanglement and ingestion by marine life and animals. The risk of irreversible loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, including seagrass meadows and kelp forests, increases with global warming<ref name=":20" />.
Plastic pollution in the oceans has increased tenfold since 1980, constituting 60–80 percent of waste found in the oceans. Plastic can be found in all oceans at all depths and concentrates in the ocean currents. Ocean plastic litter causes ecological impacts including entanglement and ingestion by marine life and animals. The risk of irreversible loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, including seagrass meadows and kelp forests, increases with global warming<ref name=":20" />.
At the moment, the Earth’s oceans are absorbing 30 percent of the global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and almost all of the excess heat in the atmosphere, leading to warming sea temperatures. Since 1993, the rate of ocean warming has more than doubled<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate], SPM A2</ref>, resulting in the destruction of coral reefs and extinction of some marine life. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable to climate change and are projected to decline to 10 to 30 percent of former cover at 1.5°C warming, and to less than one percent of former cover at 2°C warming (that is, 99 percent of coral reefs would be lost at 2°C warming)<ref>[https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf IPBES 2019 Global Assessment]</ref>. The accumulation of heat in the oceans will persist for centuries and affect many future generations<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.22</ref>.
At the moment, the Earth’s oceans are absorbing 30 percent of the global CO2 emissions and almost all of the excess heat in the atmosphere, leading to warming sea temperatures. Since 1993, the rate of ocean warming has more than doubled<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate], SPM A2</ref>, resulting in the destruction of coral reefs and extinction of some marine life. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable to climate change and are projected to decline to 10 to 30 percent of former cover at 1.5°C warming, and to less than one percent of former cover at 2°C warming<ref>[https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf IPBES 2019 Global Assessment]</ref>. The accumulation of heat in the oceans will persist for centuries and affect many future generations<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.22</ref>.
Approximately 40 percent of the global population live within 100km (60 miles) of the coast. Around 10 percent of the world’s population live in coastal areas that are less than 10 meters above sea level<ref>[https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Ocean-fact-sheet-package.pdf UN]</ref>. As a result of climate change, sea levels are rising, the ocean is warming and seawater is becoming more acidic due to carbon dioxide intake. Even if warming is kept well below 2°C, there is a high confidence that communities in all regions of the world – especially coastal communities – will still have to adapt to these changes in the world’s oceans<ref name=":21">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate]</ref>.
Approximately 40 percent of the global population live within 100km (60 miles) of the coast. Around 10 percent of the world’s population live in coastal areas that are less than 10 meters above sea level<ref>[https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Ocean-fact-sheet-package.pdf UN]</ref>. As a result of climate change, sea levels are rising, the ocean is warming and seawater is becoming more acidic due to carbon dioxide intake. Even if warming is kept well below 2°C, there is a high confidence that communities in all regions of the world – especially coastal communities – will still have to adapt to these changes in the world’s oceans<ref name=":21">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate]</ref>.
As a result of ocean temperatures warming, many marine species have changed their behaviour and location, bringing them into contact with different species, causing disruption to ecosystems and increasing the risk of spreading disease<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate], SPM A4, A5 & A6</ref>.
As a result of ocean temperatures warming, many marine species have changed their behaviour and location, bringing them into contact with different species, causing disruption to ecosystems and increasing the risk of spreading disease<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate], SPM A4, A5 & A6</ref>.
Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean circulation, ice sheets and global sea level.
Scientists say that unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, this situation will soon become too severe to meet the Paris targets<ref name=":32" /> – this is why what we are experiencing now is a climate and ecological crisis.
== <big>Scenarios and pathways</big> ==
'''What are the different temperature rise scenarios and climate mitigation pathways for the future, the challenges and uncertainties ahead?'''
=== <big>A. Climate models & projected changes in greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric temperature</big> ===
“Climate models” are sophisticated computer simulations that are used to analyze the future impact of changes in greenhouse gas emissions on the Earth’s climate. They can also be used to investigate how policies and technologies can be used to mitigate climate change. Climate change '''mitigation''' refers to efforts to reduce, or prevent, the emission of greenhouse gases.
The latest IPCC report<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ IPCC AR6]</ref> provided five possible scenarios for climate change based on scientific models. These outline the level of warming that can be expected in “very low” to “very high” emissions scenarios, depending on the level of CO<sub>2</sub> and other greenhouse gases emitted in the next decades.
The scenarios also vary depending on changes in population, land usage, trade and investment policies, our personal diets, and the efforts taken now to control emissions.
* '''In a “very high” emissions scenario, where the world continues on a carbon-intensive pathway, we would see CO<sub>2</sub> emissions roughly tripling from current levels by 2100 and warming of between 3.3-5.7°C by the end of the century.'''
* '''In a “high” emissions scenario, where very little action is taken to curb CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, we would see CO<sub>2</sub> emissions roughly doubling from current levels by 2100 and a warming of 2.8-4.6°C by the end of the century.'''
* '''In an “intermediate” emissions scenario, where CO<sub>2</sub> emissions remain at around current levels until the middle of the century and then decrease slowly, we would see warming of 2.1-3.5°C by 2100.'''
* '''In a “low” emissions scenario, where the world starts to take action in the 2020’s to limit CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions would reach net zero by 2075 and a warming of between 1.3-2.4°C by 2100.'''
* '''In a “very low” emissions scenario, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions decline rapidly from the early 2020s and reach net-zero around the year 2050, we would see a warming of 1.0-1.8°C by the end of the century.'''
In all the scenarios outlined by the IPCC, 1.5°C of warming is likely to be reached by 2040, representing increased risk to natural and human systems compared to the present time However, even keeping to within a 2°C target is still very dependent on the level of emissions produced over the next decade and 2°C of warming is only avoided in the low emissions scenarios.
=== <big>B. Challenges and trade-offs</big> ===
Without far-reaching policy, technology and behaviour changes, the world is on course for 3°C of warming or higher. A 3°C world is very different from the current one: with extremes of temperature come more pronounced risks of heat waves and drought, violent storms, rainfall and flooding, that will have serious consequences for ecosystems and societies around the world.
Deciding how to address the climate and ecological crisis is fundamentally about seeking to understand the challenges and trade-offs inherent in any scenarios.
In order to better understand these challenges and trade-offs, here we explore the internationally agreed Paris Agreement target to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
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To limit global warming to 1.5°C, current global emissions of carbon dioxide need to be cut in half by 2030, reaching net-zero '''CO<sub>2</sub>''' emissions globally around the year 2050, as well as achieving large reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions such as methane and nitrous oxide. Taking '''equity''' into account means that richer countries should cut their emissions much more than poorer countries.
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One concern is that large reductions in energy use could reduce living standards in industrialized, rich countries, as well as limit our ability to improve the living standards in poor countries. Improving living standards in poor countries will in some cases require increases in energy use and investment in efficient technology and public services<ref>[[Marta Baltruszewicz et al 2021]]</ref>.
== Glossary == <!--T:189-->
Recent estimates show that decent living standards for all could be achieved while reducing global energy demand for all could be achieved while reducing global energy demand<ref>[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307512 Providing decent living with minimum energy: A global scenario Decent living gaps and energy needs around the world]</ref>as long as overconsumption is drastically brought down. Some of the ways in which this can be addressed include the need to:
# '''Increase production of clean energy from low-and no-carbon technologies, such as wind and solar, and in parallel, decrease and eliminate investment in and production of fossil fuel energy.'''
# '''Invest in efficient technologies and infrastructure (insulated buildings, public transportation).'''
# '''Ensure sufficient access to affordable energy services (i.e all the things people need to use energy for, like cooking, heating, cooling, transport and communications) for all, while reducing overconsumption of the wealthiest.'''
# '''Move to healthier diets with more regional and seasonal vegetables and fruits (to reduce emissions from agriculture).'''
# '''Remove carbon from the atmosphere through the conservation and restoration of ecosystems<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/ IPCC Special Report, Chapter 2]</ref>.'''
One study found that to have a 50% chance of hitting the Paris Agreement goal, 90% of the world’s remaining coal reserves must stay in the ground<ref>[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02444-3 Most fossil-fuel reserves must remain untapped to hit 1.5 °C warming goal]</ref>, and no new investments in fossil fuel extraction can be made<ref>[https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050 Net Zero by 2050 Report IEA]</ref>.
Lack of global cooperation, as well as the persistence and growth of high-carbon lifestyles are all obstacles to achieving stability of temperature rise limited to 1.5°C. If all the current pledges under the Paris Agreement NDCs were to be met, it would still not be enough to limit warming to 1.5°C , and would instead lead to warming around 3°C – far beyond the goals of the Paris Agreement, or anything considered safe for humanity.
=== <big>C. Assumptions about negative emissions</big> ===
The low and very low emissions scenarios above rely on some level of greenhouse gas removal, through '''“negative emissions”''' technology in the second half of the century.
Many scientists are concerned that the promise of future unproven technologies, such as removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, will delay the actions that need to be taken today to address climate change. In the past, powerful industries have used the promise of future technologies to justify continued fossil fuel use<ref name=":102" />. Technologies such as ‘carbon capture’ do not yet exist at a level that is scalable, and so there are important questions about whether the technologies can be relied on.
=== <big>D. Tipping Points – Can we predict what will happen next?</big> ===
Even the best science cannot predict the future with absolute certainty. Living with climate change means living with uncertainty<ref name=":1">[https://gar.undrr.org/sites/default/files/gar19distilled.pdf 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction]</ref>. In this section, we look at feedback loops and “tipping points” as examples of uncertainty around the future of our climate.
Imagine a glass of water being tipped over. Depending on how much water is in the glass, there will be a point where the glass is tipped so much that the water will pour out of the glass. Once the water has left the glass, it’s impossible to put it back.
Climate tipping points are a “point of no return”, when the combined effects of climate change result in irreversible damages that would “cascade” across the world, like dominos. Once a tipping point is reached, a series of events is triggered, leading towards the creation of a planet that is inhospitable for many people and other lifeforms<ref name=":82" />.
The IPCC introduced the idea of tipping points two decades ago. A possible tipping point is the melting of land ice in the polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica), leading to many meters of sea-level rise over time. Models suggest that the Greenland ice sheet could eventually disappear at 1.5 °C of warming<ref name=":82" />, although only after many years. In July 2021, a heat wave caused Greenland to lose enough ice to cover the US state of Florida in 2 inches (5cm) of water in one day<ref>[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greenland-experienced-massive-ice-melt-this-week-scientists-say-2021-07-30/ Reuters]</ref><ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate]</ref>. Sea ice is already shrinking rapidly in the Arctic, indicating that, at 2°C of warming, the region has a 10–35 percent chance of becoming largely ice-free in the summer<ref>IPCC Special Report on Polar [https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/ regions]</ref>.
Another possible tipping point is the large-scale destruction and degradation of rainforests like the Amazon, which is home to one in 10known land-based species. Estimates of where an Amazon tipping point could lie range from 40 percent deforestation to just 20 percent forest-cover loss. About 17 percent has been lost since 1970<ref name=":82" />, with large areas being lost due to human deforestation every minute.
Moving closer to tipping points such as ice sheets melting, deforestation, melting of permafrost and changes in ocean circulation (or a combination of these) creates a cycle which scientists refer to as a “feedback loop”, where climate change causes a cascade of effects that result in even more climate change.
An example of this can be found in the Arctic. The greenhouse gas methane is currently “stored” in Arctic permafrost. As global warming causes the permafrost to melt, the methane stored is released into the atmosphere, adding yet more greenhouse gas emissions that can lead to further global warming. More warming results in more melting permafrost, adding yet more methane to the atmosphere to create even more warming and more melting permafrost, in a vicious cycle that may be impossible to stop.
These feedback loops are “non-linear”, meaning they can accelerate in sudden and unexpected ways and could arise in a way that science has not been able to predict<ref name=":1" />. Due to these uncertainties, it is possible that we could already be at risk of triggering tipping points that lead to irreversible changes that culminate in a largely uninhabitable planet<ref>[https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 PNAS Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene]</ref>.
The next 10 years will be critical for adapting to and mitigating climate change. Being well informed about the risks and causes of climate change helps us to make the best decisions in the present, despite the fact that it will never be possible to predict the future with certainty. Climate change is happening much faster than efforts to address it, and the past is not a reliable indicator of the future<ref name=":1" />. Going forward, the future is uncertain. This understanding creates discomfort (a sense of things being out of control), but also opportunity<ref name=":1" />. There is still time to avert the crisis, if action is taken now.
== <big>What action is already being taken?</big> ==
'''It’s been six years since the Paris Agreement. What action has been taken by countries so far to reduce emissions and biodiversity loss, and what more needs to be done?'''
=== <big>A. Energy transition</big> ===
One of the most important actions of the next decade will be to switch electricity generation to renewable sources and away from fossil fuels. While the growth in renewable energy is important for enabling the world to move away from fossil fuels, at the same time the increasing availability of renewable energy could simply lead to an overall growth in total energy use<ref name=":102" />.
Universal access to clean and affordable energy requires a transformation of both the production and use of energy<ref name=":112" />. To reduce coal use by 70 percent by 2030 means a five-fold increase in wind and solar energy, as well as phasing out and closing 2,400 coalfired power stations globally within the next decade<ref name=":92" />. Measures taken to replace fossil-fuel energy with renewable energy will cost money, but it will ultimately be cheaper to mitigate climate change than to be forced to adapt to climate change<ref>[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0071-9/ Burke et al, Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets]</ref>.
Additionally, there are many economic and health benefits from transitioning to a low-carbon economy, such as a reduction in urban air pollution that is caused in large part by petrol and diesel powered vehicles<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Section 4.1]</ref><ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ IPCC 2018 Global Warming of 1.5ºC, Chapter 3, section 5.2]</ref><ref>[https://www.unep.org/resources/global-environment-outlook-6 Global Environment Outlook 6 2019], Key Message 19, Chapter 24.4, and Box 24.1</ref>.
Solar and wind energy are now cheaper than coal or gas-fired plants in most countries, and solar projects offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen<ref>[https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2020]</ref>.
The early retirement or repurposing of energy infrastructure is necessary to meet Paris commitments. Many studies show that simply allowing existing fossil fuel facilities to run until their expected end of life would not keep emissions below both 1.5°C and 2°C<ref name=":102" />.
Increasing the supply of clean energy is important for achieving sustainable economic growth while limiting global warming. Clean energy has the potential to reduce poverty and indoor and outdoor air pollution and provide critical services such as communications, lighting and water pumping<ref name=":2">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.107</ref>.
Improving and increasing energy efficiency could reduce CO2 emissions by 40 percent by 2040. This would require efficiency gains in transportation (for example, electric cars), in households (more efficient houses and appliances) and in industry. Households worldwide could also save more than $500 billion dollars per year in energy bills by increasing their energy efficiency (electricity, natural gas for heating and cooking and fuel for transportation)<ref name=":92" />.
=== <big>B. Conservation and restoration</big> ===
The issues of climate change, loss of biodiversity, land degradation, and air and water pollution are interconnected. A key challenge of the next decades will be to recognize the interconnected nature of these issues, and make sure that actions to address one do not have unintended consequences on the other. For example, the replacing of native vegetation with monoculture crops for supplying bioenergy<ref name=":2" />, or the destruction of ecosystems to build renewable energy infrastructure<ref>[https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-can-save-the-natural-world-but-if-were-not-careful-it-will-also-hurt-it-145166 Renewable energy can save the natural world – but if we’re not careful, it will also hurt it]</ref>.
Large-scale reforestation with native vegetation simultaneously addresses the issues of biodiversity loss, land degradation, and air and water pollution. Restoring ecosystems increases the capacity of forests, the ocean and soil to absorb carbon dioxide. Today, nature is only able to absorb around half of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, more or less equally split between land-based ecosystems and the ocean, with the remainder staying in the atmosphere and causing the Earth to warm<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Executive Summary], Section B, Sections 2.3.2 in main report, and figure 2.8</ref>.
Forests currently absorb less than a quarter of the carbon emissions from fossil fuels and industry<ref>[https://www.un.org/esa/forests/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/UNFF14-BkgdStudy-SDG13-March2019.pdf Brack, Duncan, Forests and Climate Change]</ref>, with the potential to store much more.
Agriculture is a big driver of biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Changing food production systems so that they use agricultural methods that work with nature is critical for restoring natural ecosystems and building the capacities of soil to sequester carbon. Sustainable agricultural methods have the potential to help to eliminate hunger and malnutrition, and contribute to human health. Sustainable agriculture conserves and restores soils and ecosystems, improving local biodiversity, rather than degrading it<ref name=":42" />.
Small-scale farmers, particularly women farmers, are central to the challenge of achieving sustainable food security and need to be empowered through access to financing, education and training, and information and technology<ref name=":42" />.
=== <big>C. Global awareness</big> ===
Since the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC from the IPCC in 2018 and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Global Assessment in 2019, global awareness of the climate and ecological crisis has risen considerably.
In 2021, the UN published the results of the Peoples’ Climate Vote<ref name=":110" />. With 1.2 million people from across the world providing their views, this is the largest survey of public opinion on climate change ever conducted, giving an insight into public opinions on climate solutions like renewable energy and nature conservation. In many of the participating countries, this was the first time that there had ever been such a large-scale attempt to obtain public opinion on the topic of climate change.
The Peoples’ Climate Vote found that nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of people in 50 countries believe that climate change is a global emergency. This is important information for governments in the run up to the Glasgow COP26, as it shows that the majority of people believe that it is vital to act on climate change now.
The survey also found a high level of support across the world for the conservation of forests and land, the implementation of renewable energy, climate friendly farming techniques and investment in green business.
In countries with a high level of deforestation – Brazil, Indonesia and Argentina – there was a majority support for conserving forests and land. In India, conserving forest and land was the third most popular climate policy in that country after increasing use of renewable energy and using climate-friendly farming techniques.
In countries where there are high carbon emissions from heating and electricity use – the US, Australia, Germany, South Africa, Japan, Poland and Russia – there was a majority support for renewable energy.
The results of the survey are significant as they show broad support for climate action across the world and amongst different age groups, education levels, nationalities and genders<ref name=":110" />.
As well as putting pressure on governments to act on climate change and exercising their voting and civic rights, individuals can facilitate a global shift towards a low carbon future through personal and civic action. When it comes to the role of citizens in reducing carbon emissions, people in some countries can have a higher impact than others, based on their CO2 emissions per person and their wider influence in society. Individuals in high-emitting countries can facilitate a global shift towards a low carbon future through changing their diets (for example eating less, or no, meat) and travel habits (for example flying or driving less), avoiding waste of food and resources, and reducing their consumption of water and energy. These actions can also help protect and conserve biodiversity. People can also promote change by raising awareness in their communities and by engaging in community and political action, using the most appropriate means available to the society in which they live<ref>[http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions Global Carbon Atlas, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions per person (2017)]</ref>.
== <big>Distribution and fairness</big> ==
Some countries and regions of the world started emitting a significant amount of CO2 centuries ago; others only started relatively recently. One of the reasons global annual emissions are now rising is because of the rapid growth of emerging economies, especially in Asia, the Middle East and in Central and South America. Almost all growth in emissions this century will come from developing countries<ref>[https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020 UN Emissions Gap Report 2020]</ref>.
While most of the recent increase in carbon emissions can be traced to developing countries, it is important to recognise that rich countries such as the US and the EU member states have outsourced many of the more carbon-intensive and environmentally toxic parts of their production chain to countries such as China and India - while the rich world continues to consume high-carbon goods, it has come to rely on other parts of the world to manufacture them. For example, a large percentage of electronic goods that are used all over the world are made in China. This has the effect of displacing emissions to these countries, rather than reducing them<ref name=":102" />.
The difference in impact between those most responsible for causing climate change and those most vulnerable to its impacts are very striking. For example, the wealthiest 1 percent of the world’s population (approx. 75 million people) are responsible for twice the emissions of the poorest half of the world’s population (approx. 3,750 million people)<ref name=":102" />.
The industrialized nations and regions of the world that became rich from burning fossil fuels and colonial exploitation have the best resources to lead now. In the light of different national circumstances, the Paris Agreement calls for “rapid reductions” of emissions to be achieved “on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty”<ref>[https://unfoundation.org/our-common-agenda/climate-report/ United Nations Foundations, Climate Analytics and E3G. The Value of Climate Cooperation: Networked and Inclusive Multilateralism to Meet 1.5°C (Washington DC, 2021)]</ref>.
Today there is an increasing recognition for the need to adapt and adjust to the realities of climate change. Adaptation is specifically discussed in the Paris Agreement. What adaptation to climate change looks like will be different for different communities in different parts of the world. The challenges of adapting to climate change will be greatest for most developing countries given that many of the impacts are greatest in these countries and many lack the financing, infrastructure and technical capability needed to adapt.
This will ultimately have implications on the equality of opportunity for development as envisioned in the UN Sustainable Development Goals<ref>[https://sdgs.un.org/goals UN Sustainable Development Goals]</ref> and the UN Declaration on the Right to Development<ref>[https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/righttodevelopment.aspx UN Declaration on the Right to Development]</ref>.
The warmer the world becomes the greater each sector is affected. The greater the degradation of ecosystems, the more difficult it will be to adapt. Poor and marginalized communities – including those in wealthy countries – lack the basic capacities needed to adapt to current levels of warming<ref name=":102" />.
In many cases, adaptation will not be possible at all, for example in some places agriculture will no longer be possible due to higher temperatures and lack of water resources. Developing countries are, in general, most vulnerable due to the impacts being greater, coupled with a lack of financial, and technological infrastructure<ref>[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-020-00807-9 Loss and Damage and limits to adaptation: recent IPCC insights and implications for climate science and policy]</ref>. Moreover, the marginalization of these communities has typically been tied to the very processes that cause climate change, including colonialism, exploitation of resources (often while degrading the ecological resources that support local livelihoods) and fossil fuel–driven capital accumulation<ref name=":102" />.
Richer countries will have more resources than poor countries to adapt to the demands of a changing climate, meaning that there is a need for financial aid and technological assistance to poorer countries. The greater the degree of warming the greater the impacts on societies, economies, human health and ecosystems, hence the greater the challenge of adaptation.
Of the 192 countries that have submitted pledges to the Paris Agreement, 127 are partially or totally conditional. This means that without international finance or technical support, these pledges may not be implemented. These conditional pledges were mostly put forward by countries that lack the financial capability to reduce emissions as well as the technological and institutional capacity<ref name=":92" />.
Many of these commitments may not be implemented because, so far, little international support has materialized<ref name=":92" />.
The issue of climate change also brings up questions of generational responsibility. Older generations benefitted the most from economic development as a result of burning fossil fuels, whereas younger generations will – and are – suffering the consequences.
== <big>COP26 and beyond</big> ==
The climate and ecological crisis is already with us and getting worse as greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow and humans continue to destroy biodiversity. The damages from climate change are worse than expected a decade ago, and are already being felt across the globe. To keep the goal of limiting warming to a maximum 1.5°C within reach, significant reductions in emissions are needed in the 2020s, as well as in the following decades.
The past five years have had some successes. Solar and wind power have turned out to be much cheaper and easier to implement than predicted, electric vehicles are becoming more common and available, and low carbon technologies are competitive in a growing number of markets. However, there is increasing recognition that emissions need to be reduced in the sectors that are the toughest to decarbonize, such as aviation. A 2018 report on the aviation industry, for example, found that current plans to update technologies and improve operations will not mitigate the expected fuel demand and emissions<ref>[https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/roadmap-decarbonising-european-aviation/ Roadmap to decarbonising European aviation]</ref>. Roadmaps are emerging for taking on emissions from heavy industry.
Changes in consumption patterns and dominant lifestyles are also a critical and integral part of the solutions to addressing climate change<ref>[https://hotorcool.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/15_Degree_Lifestyles_MainReport.pdf 1.5 Degree Lifestyles]</ref>. Lifestyles of individuals consist of various elements of daily living including consumption relating to nutrition, housing, mobility, consumer goods, leisure, and services.
Now that the goals of the Paris Agreement have been set, the Glasgow COP26 is expected to be about creating a more detailed roadmap of how to achieve them. Some important questions for the conference will include how to transition away from fossil fuels and how to convert net-zero pledges into action. To develop the next stages will require leadership on all levels, from individuals to businesses and investors, to government<ref name=":92" />, to the Global Assembly.
== <big>Glossary</big> ==
'''Adaptation:''' To change, adjust or improve something so as to make it suitable for a different situation.
'''Adaptation:''' To change, adjust or improve something so as to make it suitable for a different situation.
'''Carbon budget:''' An amount of carbon dioxide that a country, company, or organization has agreed is the largest it will produce in a particular period of time.
'''Carbon budget:''' An amount of carbon dioxide that a country, company, or organization has agreed is the largest it will produce in a particular period of time.
'''Carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>):''' Carbon dioxide is a gas consisting of one part carbon and two parts oxygen.
'''Carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>):''' Carbon dioxide is a gas consisting of one part carbon and two parts oxygen.
'''Conference of the Parties (COP):''' The decision-making body responsible for monitoring and reviewing the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
'''Conference of the Parties (COP):''' The decision-making body responsible for monitoring and reviewing the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
'''Decarbonizing:''' The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions through the use of low carbon power sources, meaning less greenhouse gasses are emitted into the atmosphere.
'''Decarbonizing:''' The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions through the use of low carbon power sources, meaning less greenhouse gasses are emitted into the atmosphere.
'''Economic growth:''' Economic growth is an increase in the goods and services produced in a market (for example, a country's economy). Economic growth is measured in terms of gross domestic product, or '''GDP'''.
'''Economic growth:''' Economic growth is an increase in the goods and services produced in a market (for example, a country's economy). Economic growth is measured in terms of gross domestic product, or '''GDP'''.
'''Equity:''' “Common but differentiated responsibilities” (CBDR) is a principle of international environmental law establishing that all states are responsible for addressing global environmental destruction, yet not equally responsible<ref>[https://www.britannica.com/topic/common-but-differentiated-responsibilities CBDR - Britannica]</ref>.
'''Equity:''' “Common but differentiated responsibilities” (CBDR) is a principle of international environmental law establishing that all states are responsible for addressing global environmental destruction, yet not equally responsible<ref>[https://www.britannica.com/topic/common-but-differentiated-responsibilities CBDR - Britannica]</ref>.
'''Exploit/exploitation:''' To use someone or something unfairly to your own advantage, with a lack of care for the thing that’s being exploited.
'''Exploit/exploitation:''' To use someone or something unfairly to your own advantage, with a lack of care for the thing that’s being exploited.
'''Extinction:''' The moment when a kind of organism, usually a species, becomes extinct. Extinction happens when the last remaining individual of the species dies.
'''Extinction:''' The moment when a kind of organism, usually a species, becomes extinct. Extinction happens when the last remaining individual of the species dies.
'''GDP''': Gross domestic product is the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services in a country during a certain period.
'''GDP''': Gross domestic product is the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services in a country during a certain period.
'''Greenland ice sheet:''' The Greenland ice sheet is a vast body of ice covering 1,710,000 square kilometers, roughly 79% of the surface of Greenland. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic ice sheet.
'''Greenland ice sheet:''' The Greenland ice sheet is a vast body of ice covering 1,710,000 square kilometres, roughly 79% of the surface of Greenland. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic ice sheet.
'''Greenhouse gases:''' The six greenhouse gases covered by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol are: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydroflurocarbons, perflurocarbons and sulphar hexafluoride.
'''Greenhouse gases:''' The six greenhouse gases covered by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol are: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydroflurocarbons, perflurocarbons and sulphar hexafluoride.
'''Indigenous people''': An official definition of “indigenous” has not been adopted by any UN-system body. According to common definition, however, indigenous people are the descendants of those who inhabited a country or a geographical region at the time when people of different cultures or ethnic origins arrived. The new arrivals later became dominant through conquest, occupation, settlement or other means. It is estimated that there are more than 370 million indigenous people spread across 70 countries worldwide<ref>[https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/5session_factsheet1.pdf UN Who are Indigenous people?]</ref>.
'''Indigenous people''': An official definition of “indigenous” has not been adopted by any UN-system body. According to common definition, however, indigenous people are the descendants of those who inhabited a country or a geographical region at the time when people of different cultures or ethnic origins arrived. The new arrivals later became dominant through conquest, occupation, settlement or other means. It is estimated that there are more than 370 million indigenous people spread across 70 countries worldwide<ref name=":24">[https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/5session_factsheet1.pdf UN Forum on Indigenous Issues]</ref>.
'''Industrial Revolution''': In modern history, the Industrial Revolution was the process of change from a farming and handcraft based economy, to one dominated by industry and machine manufacturing, during the 18th and 19th centuries
'''Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)''': An intergovernmental body of the United Nations that provides objective scientific information on human-induced climate change, its natural, political, and economic impacts and risks, and possible response options.
'''Low carbon''': Causing or resulting in only a relatively small net release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
'''Industrial Revolution''': In modern history, the Industrial Revolution was the process of change from a farming and handcraft based economy, to one dominated by industry and machine manufacturing, during the 18th and 19th centuries
'''Mitigation''': The action of reducing the severity, seriousness, or painfulness of something.
'''Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):''' An intergovernmental body of the United Nations that provides objective scientific information on human-induced climate change, its natural, political, and economic impacts and risks, and possible response options.
'''Nationally determined contributions (NDC)''': Nationally determined contributions (INDC) are intended reductions in greenhouse gas emissions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
'''Low carbon:''' Causing or resulting in only a relatively small net release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
'''Negative emissions''': Negative emissions is one of the terms used for activities that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
'''Mitigation:''' The action of reducing the severity, seriousness, or painfulness of something.
'''Paris Agreement''': The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change, adopted in 2015.
'''Nationally determined contributions (NDC):''' Nationally determined contributions (INDC) are intended reductions in greenhouse gas emissions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
'''Pollution''': The presence in or introduction into the environment of a substance which has harmful or poisonous effects. Pollution can be created by human activity, for example rubbish in the oceans or chemical run-off from agriculture.
'''Paris Agreement:''' The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change, adopted in 2015.
'''Scientific Revolution''': A change in thought that took place during the 16th and 17th centuries. During this time, science became its own discipline, distinct from philosophy and technology. By the end of this period, science had replaced Christianity as the focal point of European civilization.
'''Scientific Revolution:''' A change in thought that took place during the 16th and 17th centuries. During this time, science became its own discipline, distinct from philosophy and technology.
'''Temperature translations: Degrees Celsius (°C) to Fahrenheit (°F)''':
'''Temperature translations: Degrees Celsius (°C) to Fahrenheit (°F):'''
1.0°C = 1.8°F
1.0°C = 1.8°F
1.2°C = 2.6°F
1.2°C = 2.6°F
1.5°C = 2.7°F
1.5°C = 2.7°F
2°C = 3.6°F
2°C = 3.6°F
2.5°C = 4.4°F
2.5°C = 4.4°F
3°C = 5.4°F
3°C = 5.4°F
3.5°C = 6.2°F
3.5°C = 6.2°F
4°C = 7.2°F
4°C = 7.2°F
4.5°C = 8.1°F
4.5°C = 8.1°F
5°C = 8.8°F
5°C = 8.8°F
6°C = 10.8°F
6°C = 10.8°F
== <big>Credits</big> ==
This information booklet was made to inform the learning phase of the Global Assembly.
The Global Assembly’s Knowledge and Wisdom Committee led the writing process of this booklet. The purpose of the committee is to ensure that the Global Assembly’s learning phase is grounded in evidence. This committee chose the framing question that the Assembly will be deliberating on, as well the content of this information booklet.
The members of the committee have expertise in: Earth Systems Science, Systems Change, Engineering & geology, Indigenous knowledge, Ecology, Climate Science, Environmental Economics, Climate Adaptation & Vulnerable countries, Behavioral and Cognitive Psychology.
The committee is chaired by Professor <u>[https://tyndall.ac.uk/people/robert-watson Robert Watson]</u>, former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity Ecosystem Services (IPBES).
The members of the committee are:
* <u>[https://www.systemshift.earth/our-team Dr. Nafeez Ahmed]</u>, System Shift Lab, UK
* <u>[https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/people/view/1156602-capstick-stuart Dr. Stuart Capstick]</u>, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformation, Cardiff University, Wales
* <u>[http://iegindia.org/staffmembers/faculty/detail/3549/3http://iegindia.org/staffmembers/faculty/detail/3549/3 Professor Purnamita Dasgupta]</u>, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi
* <u>[https://www.icccad.net/our-team/saleemul-huq/ Professor Saleemul Huq]</u>, International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), Bangladesh
* <u>[https://thefountain.earth/people/ Jyoti Ma (USA) & Mindahi Bastida Munoz (Mexico)]</u>, The Fountain, Sacred Economics, Indigenous Wisdom Keepers
* <u>[https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Michael-Oti Professor Michael N. Oti]</u>, Petroleum Geology, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
* <u>[https://profjuliasteinberger.wordpress.com/about-me/ Professor Julia Steinberger]</u>, Ecological Economics, University of Lausanne, Switzerland
This information booklet went through twelve iterations. It was written by journalist <u>[https://www.linkedin.com/in/tarn-rodgers-johns-a146099b/?originalSubdomain=de Tarn Rogers Johns]</u> with guidance and feedback from [http://clairemellier.com/ Claire Mellier]. It was sub edited by [https://www.linkedin.com/in/natalie-marchant/?originalSubdomain=uk Nathalie Marchant]. Feedback on the drafts was provided by [https://www.linkedin.com/in/lydiamessling/?originalSubdomain=uk Dr Lydia Messling], Will Bugler and Georgina Wade, climate communication specialists from consultancy group [https://www.willistowerswatson.com/en-US Willis Towers Watson], and by the [https://globalassembly.org/ Global Assembly Lab partners].