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Information Booklet (view source)
Revision as of 06:18, 24 September 2021
, 06:18, 24 September 2021→Why are we in a climate and ecological crisis?
* '''According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1.5°C of warming is likely to be reached by 2040. However, the 2°C target is still very dependent on the level of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions produced over the next several decades.'''
* '''According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1.5°C of warming is likely to be reached by 2040. However, the 2°C target is still very dependent on the level of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions produced over the next several decades.'''
* '''If all the current pledges (nationally determined contributions) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are met – and we don’t know yet if they will – this is likely to result in at least 3°C (5.4°F) of global warming'''<ref>[https://media.nature.com/original/magazine-assets/d41586-019-03595-0/d41586-019-03595-0.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0iOMQsTuaP8XU76CnmIcqyKzXcJQEHvkKSyYhCDCurIWecbtKaVfXUbPE Lenton. Climate Tipping Points too Risky to Bet Against]</ref>''', despite the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit warming to well below 2°C.'''
* '''If all the current pledges (nationally determined contributions) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are met – and we don’t know yet if they will – this is likely to result in at least 3°C (5.4°F) of global warming'''<ref name=":8">[https://media.nature.com/original/magazine-assets/d41586-019-03595-0/d41586-019-03595-0.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0iOMQsTuaP8XU76CnmIcqyKzXcJQEHvkKSyYhCDCurIWecbtKaVfXUbPE Lenton. Climate Tipping Points too Risky to Bet Against]</ref>''', despite the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit warming to well below 2°C.'''
* '''Many of the commitments of the Paris Agreement by poorer countries may not be implemented because they are dependent on financial support from abroad. So far little international support has materialized.'''
* '''Many of the commitments of the Paris Agreement by poorer countries may not be implemented because they are dependent on financial support from abroad. So far little international support has materialized.'''
The Industrial Revolution allowed for the mining of fossil fuels on a mass scale. Burning fossil fuels has been the dominant source of energy for over 100 years, and this has driven economic development. As a result of this, rich countries like the US, the UK, and the countries in the EU have produced the largest amount of greenhouse gases over time<ref name=":7">[https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34438/EGR20ESE.pdf?sequence=25 UN Emissions Gap Report 2020 - Executive Summary]</ref>. Now, as countries like China and India follow the same development path as rich countries, more and more people are dependent on burning fossil fuels every year<ref name=":7" />. With its rapidly growing economy, China is currently the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases<ref>[https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries - 2019 Report]</ref>. Historically the US has been the largest emitter, meaning that it has emitted the most amount of greenhouse gases over time<ref>[https://www.statista.com/statistics/1224630/cumulative-co2-emissions-united-states-historical/ Statistica]</ref>. Within the five top contributors to emissions, the US also has the highest CO<sub>2</sub> emissions per person<ref>[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337033405_The_Truth_Behind_the_Climate_Pledges The Truth Behind the Climate Pledges]</ref>.
The Industrial Revolution allowed for the mining of fossil fuels on a mass scale. Burning fossil fuels has been the dominant source of energy for over 100 years, and this has driven economic development. As a result of this, rich countries like the US, the UK, and the countries in the EU have produced the largest amount of greenhouse gases over time<ref name=":7">[https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34438/EGR20ESE.pdf?sequence=25 UN Emissions Gap Report 2020 - Executive Summary]</ref>. Now, as countries like China and India follow the same development path as rich countries, more and more people are dependent on burning fossil fuels every year<ref name=":7" />. With its rapidly growing economy, China is currently the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases<ref>[https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries - 2019 Report]</ref>. Historically the US has been the largest emitter, meaning that it has emitted the most amount of greenhouse gases over time<ref>[https://www.statista.com/statistics/1224630/cumulative-co2-emissions-united-states-historical/ Statistica]</ref>. Within the five top contributors to emissions, the US also has the highest CO<sub>2</sub> emissions per person<ref name=":9">[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337033405_The_Truth_Behind_the_Climate_Pledges The Truth Behind the Climate Pledges]</ref>.
Ways of living that are detrimental to nature and emit carbon are deeply embedded in modern societies. Some call the climate and ecological crisis a “crisis of relationship” between humans and nature. In order to transition to a more sustainable future, they say we need to “make
Ways of living that are detrimental to nature and emit carbon are deeply embedded in modern societies. Some call the climate and ecological crisis a “crisis of relationship” between humans and nature. In order to transition to a more sustainable future, they say we need to “make peace<ref name=":4" />” with nature and transform our economic, financial and productive systems accordingly<ref name=":4" />. In 2021, a group of researchers identified nine interlocking reasons for our collective failure to address the climate crisis over the past three decades. They argued that in order to adequately address this crisis, there is a need to question many of the core worldviews at the heart of industrialized, wealthy societies<ref name=":10">[https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011104#article-denial Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve?]</ref>.
Despite many decades of climate action, wealthy societies have not yet managed to imagine desirable ways of living that are not intertwined with fossil fuels, or dependent on economic growth as a signal of development and progress<ref name=":10" />.
A healthy environment is a prerequisite for a sustainable economy. It is becoming commonly accepted that economic production – '''gross domestic product''' (GDP) – as a measure of economic growth must be complemented with “inclusive wealth” (the sum of produced, human and natural capital), which takes into account the health of the environment and is a better measure of whether national economic policies are sustainable for the youth of today and future generations<ref name=":11">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature] </ref> <ref>[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/962785/The_Economics_of_Biodiversity_The_Dasgupta_Review_Full_Report.pdf The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review]</ref>.
== International negotiations ==
''World leaders will meet in Glasgow later this year to talk about climate change, and in China to talk about the ecological crisis. In this section we learn about what the goals of these negotiations are, and how they are being met so far.''
=== A) What have climate negotiations achieved so far? ===
Scientists have been predicting human-induced climate change for decades. '''The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change''' (UNFCCC) was signed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and '''Conferences of the Parties''' (COP) have been held every year since 1995. The purpose of the conferences is to discuss what to do about climate change, and to propose the measures to be taken by participating states to address climate change<ref>[https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/supreme-bodies/conference-of-the-parties-cop UN https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/supreme-bodies/conference-of-the-parties-cop]</ref>.
In 2015, world leaders met in Paris for the COP21 conference. The results of that conference were that, for the first time, world leaders reached an agreement on large-scale action against climate change. Some 196 participating states around the world agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C<ref name=":12">[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement UNFCC]</ref>. Nearly all countries made a commitment (a pledge or a “'''nationally determined contribution'''”, NDC) to limit their greenhouse gas emissions and lower their contribution to climate change. These pledges were to be updated every five years.
There are two goals associated with limiting climate change in the Paris Agreement:
# Limit global warming to a maximum of 2°C by the end of the century (2100), and preferably 1.5°C.
# Reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
If we are able to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally by 2030, the next stage would be for countries to reach “net-zero” emissions by 2050. Net zero means removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere at the same rate as they are emitted, or simply eliminating emissions altogether<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/glossary/ IPCC Glossary]</ref>. This could be achieved through carbon dioxide being removed or ‘captured’ from the atmosphere by forests, soil and the ocean, and through (not yet fully developed) carbon-capture technologies.
Since the Paris COP21...
* China’s CO<sub>2</sub> emissions increased by 80 percent between 2005 and 2018 and are expected to continue to increase for the next decade, given its projected rate of economic growth<ref name=":9" />.
* The EU and its member states are on track to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 58 percent by 2030<ref name=":9" />.
* India’s emissions increased by about 76 percent between 2005 and 2017 and, like China is expected to continue to increase until 2030 due to economic growth<ref name=":9" />.
* The Russian Federation, the fifth largest greenhouse gas emitter, submitted its first NDC in 2020 aiming to cut emissions by 30 percent by 2030<ref name=":12" />.
Taken together, the NDCs determine whether or not the world will achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement<ref>[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs UNFCC Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) definition] </ref>. If all the current goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions were met – and we don’t know yet if they will – this is likely to result in at least 3°C of global warming, despite the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit warming to well below 2°C<ref name=":8" />.
Because the current NDCs are not sufficient to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, new NDCs are submitted every five years to the UN. The intention is for each country to get more ambitious in its targets, based on the goals of the Paris Agreement. Each country establishes different goals. For example, the EU has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030<ref>[https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en EU 2030 Climate & Energy Framework]</ref> and the UK by 78 percent by 2035<ref>[https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-enshrines-new-target-in-law-to-slash-emissions-by-78-by-2035 UK enshrines new target in law to slash emissions by 78% by 2035]</ref>. France and the UK are among countries that have made reaching net zero by 2050 a legal requirement. Japan, South Africa, Argentina, Mexico and the EU have all announced goals to reach net zero by 2050<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34438/EGR20ESE.pdf?sequence=25 UN Emissions Gap Report 2020 - Executive Summary]</ref>. China pledged to reach ‘peak emissions’ by 2030<sup><sup>[4]</sup></sup> before transitioning to net zero by the end of 2060<ref>[https://apnews.com/article/europe-business-china-environment-and-nature-climate-change-7e29d68ea8a77ee8ebbe1460f0f09ffd China sticks to goal of having carbon emissions peak by 2030]</ref>.
Since Paris, some progress has already been achieved. However things are not moving fast enough. A recent analysis by the UN concludes that if all the NDCs were to be met, it may still lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7°C by the end of the century<ref>[https://unfccc.int/news/full-ndc-synthesis-report-some-progress-but-still-a-big-concern Full NDC Synthesis Report: Some Progress, but Still a Big Concern]</ref>.
At the current rate, warming will reach 1.5°C by around 2040 – possibly earlier<ref name=":4" /> –and continue to increase if action is not taken now. Evidence has shown that the risks associated with a 2°C increase in global temperature are higher than previously understood<ref name=":11" />.
Since the COP21, two reports from the '''Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change''' (IPCC) in 2018 and 2021 have stressed that the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming will be the loss of lives and livelihoods for millions<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap13_FINAL.pdf IPCC Livelihoods and Poverty 13.2.1]</ref>, with even greater adverse consequences for higher levels of warming.
Research has shown how fossil fuel companies have lobbied to weaken climate policies around the world and have continued to do so while claiming to support the Paris Agreement. Political lobbying by fossil fuel interests also explains why the Paris Agreement makes no explicit mention of decarbonization or the reduction of fossil fuel use, despite the scientific evidence that holding to 1.5–2°C of warming requires most fossil fuels to remain in the ground<ref name=":10" />.
What’s more, many fossil fuel–exporting countries have obstructed the decision making process by stalling negotiations, exacerbating political tensions and avoiding any reference to fossil fuels as the main cause of climate change. Countries rich in fossil fuel reserves, such as Saudi Arabia, the US, Kuwait, and Russia, have been particularly notable for obstructing the negotiations and disputing the science on climate change<ref name=":10" />.
Rich countries have failed to decisively lead in addressing climate change, both in achieving significant emission cuts and providing adequate and predictable finance. Failure from the wealthiest nations to properly lead on this issue has created mistrust, enabling vested interest groups such as the fossil fuel industry to gain a foothold in some developing countries and thereby further embedding high-carbon development, rather than low-carbon alternatives<ref name=":10" />.
The lack of quick and decisive action on climate change will generate significant financial costs for governments across the world. There are estimates that extreme weather as a result of human-induced climate change could cost $2 billion per day by 2030. In addition to the cost, weather events and patterns will continue to change, and will adversely affect human health, livelihoods, food, water, biodiversity and economic growth<ref name=":9" />.
=== B) What have biodiversity negotiations achieved so far? ===
Biodiversity has important economic, biological and social value, but for a long time only the market economic value has been considered.
The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) was opened for signing in Rio De Janeiro in 1993. The convention recognized for the first time in international law that the conservation of biodiversity is a “common concern for humankind”<ref>[https://www.un.org/depts/los/biodiversity/prepcom_files/BowlingPiersonandRatte_Common_Concern.pdf The Common Concern of Humankind]</ref>. The agreement covers ecosystems, species and genetic resources, such as seeds.
In 2010, parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, a ten-year framework for action by all countries to protect biodiversity and the benefits it provides to people. As part of the strategic plan, 20 ambitious but realistic targets, known as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, were adopted<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf Making Peace with Nature Report], p.71 </ref>.
However, none of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets were fully met by the target deadline of 2020, and analyses show that there has been moderate or poor progress for most of the targets aimed at addressing the causes of biodiversity loss. As a result, the state of biodiversity continues to decline.
In 2021, the 15th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD COP15) will be initiated in Kunming, China, and completed in 2022, to agree on a new framework for biodiversity, with a set of goals and targets.
In addition to the Convention on Biological Diversity there are five other biodiversity-related conventions, including the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, the Convention of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS), the Convention on Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, and World Heritage Convention (WHC). Despite these many international conferences on biodiversity loss, none of the goals in the international agreements have been fully met<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf Making Peace with Nature Report], p.70</ref>.
It is vital that governments start to recognise the interactions between the two issues of climate change and biodiversity loss, and develop mutually compatible goals, targets and actions.
== What is the impact of climate change and the ecological crisis on… ==
''In this section we take a broad look at the scale and impact of climate change and ecological crisis on human health and livelihoods, ecosystems and biodiversity in regions across the world. These effects will be more or less severe depending on the level of action taken now.''
=== … human health and livelihoods? ===
Climate change is damaging to human health. It increases climate-related stress<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ IPCC 2018 Global Warming of 1.5oC], B2 </ref> and leads to a greater risk of injuries, diseases, death and malnutrition due to extreme weather such as drought, hurricanes and flooding<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ PCC AR5]</ref>. This risk increases with increased warming.
Changing weather patterns can increase the likelihood of infectious diseases. Risks from some diseases that can be passed from animals or insects to humans, such as malaria and dengue fever, are projected to increase with warming from 1.5 to 2°C and increase even more with higher temperature changes, including potential shifts in where these diseases will appear<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ IPCC Report B.5.2]</ref>. For example, studies have shown that climate change is associated with increasing rates of Lyme disease in Canada<ref>[http://ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap26_FINAL.pdf Chapter 26 Pg.1465]</ref>.
Pandemics can be minimized by using a “one-health” approach. Diseases that jump from animals to humans, such as Covid-19, can be prevented by limiting human-wildlife and livestock-wildlife interactions. In a “one-health” approach, professionals with a wide range of experience and expertise – such as public health, animal health, plant health and the environment – join forces to achieve better public health outcomes<ref>[https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/one-health World Health Organisation]</ref>. A “one-health” approach can be used to prevent human health disasters e.g a zoonotic disease outbreak like Covid-19.