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Information Booklet (view source)
Revision as of 02:41, 28 September 2021
, 02:41, 28 September 2021→… land-based biodiversity and ecosystems?
== Executive summary ==
== Executive summary ==
What will the world be like in the year 2050?
'''What will the world be like in the year 2050?'''
== What is the climate crisis? ==
== What is the climate crisis? ==
''In this section, we explore the phenomena known as “climate change”. What is it? What’s causing it? And why is it urgent?''
'''''In this section, we explore the phenomena known as “climate change”. What is it? What’s causing it? And why is it urgent?'''''
== What is the ecological crisis? ==
== What is the ecological crisis? ==
''What impact are human activities having on the other species we share our planet with? In this section we take a look at why biodiversity is so important for human health and flourishing, and the role of indigenous communities across the world.''
'''''What impact are human activities having on the other species we share our planet with? In this section we take a look at why biodiversity is so important for human health and flourishing, and the role of indigenous communities across the world.'''''
Humans are part of a web of life that is much larger than our species alone. Human health is intricately interconnected with the health of animals, plants and the shared environment. As a result of how humans – particularly people in the world’s richest countries – interact with nature, some animal and plant species are becoming '''extinct'''. The pace of extinction is much faster today compared with the rest of history<ref name=":4">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Executive Summary] </ref>.
Humans are part of a web of life that is much larger than our species alone. Human health is intricately interconnected with the health of animals, plants and the shared environment. As a result of how humans – particularly people in the world’s richest countries – interact with nature, some animal and plant species are becoming '''extinct'''. The pace of extinction is much faster today compared with the rest of history<ref name=":4">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Executive Summary] </ref>.
== Why are we in a climate and ecological crisis? ==
== Why are we in a climate and ecological crisis? ==
''In this section we explore how some of the dominant ‘worldviews’ of the past centuries have shaped an attitude to nature that underlies the climate and ecological crisis today.''
'''''In this section we explore how some of the dominant ‘worldviews’ of the past centuries have shaped an attitude to nature that underlies the climate and ecological crisis today.'''''
== International negotiations ==
== International negotiations ==
''World leaders will meet in Glasgow later this year to talk about climate change, and in China to talk about the ecological crisis. In this section we learn about what the goals of these negotiations are, and how they are being met so far.''
'''''World leaders will meet in Glasgow later this year to talk about climate change, and in China to talk about the ecological crisis. In this section we learn about what the goals of these negotiations are, and how they are being met so far.'''''
=== A) What have climate negotiations achieved so far? ===
=== A) What have climate negotiations achieved so far? ===
== What is the impact of climate change and the ecological crisis on… ==
== What is the impact of climate change and the ecological crisis on… ==
''In this section we take a broad look at the scale and impact of climate change and ecological crisis on human health and livelihoods, ecosystems and biodiversity in regions across the world. These effects will be more or less severe depending on the level of action taken now.''
'''''In this section we take a broad look at the scale and impact of climate change and ecological crisis on human health and livelihoods, ecosystems and biodiversity in regions across the world. These effects will be more or less severe depending on the level of action taken now.'''''
=== … human health and livelihoods? ===
=== <big>… human health and livelihoods?</big> ===
Climate change is damaging to human health. It increases climate-related stress<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ IPCC 2018 Global Warming of 1.5oC], B2 </ref> and leads to a greater risk of injuries, diseases, death and malnutrition due to extreme weather such as drought, hurricanes and flooding<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ PCC AR5]</ref>. This risk increases with increased warming.
Climate change is damaging to human health. It increases climate-related stress<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ IPCC 2018 Global Warming of 1.5oC], B2 </ref> and leads to a greater risk of injuries, diseases, death and malnutrition due to extreme weather such as drought, hurricanes and flooding<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ PCC AR5]</ref>. This risk increases with increased warming.
At the end of 2020, around seven million people in 104 countries and territories were living in displacement as a result of disasters that happened not only in 2019, but also in previous years<ref name=":14">[https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2021/ IDMC, Global Displacement Report] </ref>. The top five countries with the highest number of IDPs due to disasters were Afghanistan (1.1 million); India (929,000); Pakistan (806,000); Ethiopia (633,000), and Sudan (454,000)<ref name=":14" />. In 2017, some 1.5 million US Americans migrated in the face of natural disasters, temporarily or permanently, to other parts of the country<ref>https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/united-states</ref>.
At the end of 2020, around seven million people in 104 countries and territories were living in displacement as a result of disasters that happened not only in 2019, but also in previous years<ref name=":14">[https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2021/ IDMC, Global Displacement Report] </ref>. The top five countries with the highest number of IDPs due to disasters were Afghanistan (1.1 million); India (929,000); Pakistan (806,000); Ethiopia (633,000), and Sudan (454,000)<ref name=":14" />. In 2017, some 1.5 million US Americans migrated in the face of natural disasters, temporarily or permanently, to other parts of the country<ref>https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/united-states</ref>.
=== … food security? ===
=== <big>… food security?</big> ===
Food security means that all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs for an active and healthy life<ref>[https://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/food_security.shtml#:~:text=What%20is%20food%20security%3F,a%20productive%20and%20healthy%20life. United Nations' Committee on World Food Security] </ref>.
Food security means that all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs for an active and healthy life<ref>[https://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/food_security.shtml#:~:text=What%20is%20food%20security%3F,a%20productive%20and%20healthy%20life. United Nations' Committee on World Food Security] </ref>.
With rising temperatures it’s expected that livestock will be affected, depending on the extent of changes in available animal feed, spread of diseases, and water resource availability<ref name=":15" />. There is also evidence that climate change has resulted in changes to agricultural pests and diseases<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/ IPCC Summary for Policy Makers]</ref>.
With rising temperatures it’s expected that livestock will be affected, depending on the extent of changes in available animal feed, spread of diseases, and water resource availability<ref name=":15" />. There is also evidence that climate change has resulted in changes to agricultural pests and diseases<ref name=":18">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/ IPCC Summary for Policy Makers]</ref>.
Climate change risks to food security and access are expected to become high between 1.2-3.5°C of warming. Very high between 3-4°C warming, and catastrophic at 4°C and above.
Climate change risks to food security and access are expected to become high between 1.2-3.5°C of warming. Very high between 3-4°C warming, and catastrophic at 4°C and above.
Rising CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations are expected to reduce the protein and nutrient content of major cereal crops, which would further reduce food and nutritional security<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Background Section 3.7 </ref>.
Rising CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations are expected to reduce the protein and nutrient content of major cereal crops, which would further reduce food and nutritional security<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Background Section 3.7 </ref>.
=== … water security? ===
=== <big>… water security?</big> ===
Water security is measured by water availability, water demand and quality (levels of pollution) in water sources.
Water security is measured by water availability, water demand and quality (levels of pollution) in water sources.
Wetlands are being lost globally, threatening water quality in many regions of the world.
Wetlands are being lost globally, threatening water quality in many regions of the world.
=== … land-based biodiversity and ecosystems? ===
=== <big>… land-based biodiversity and ecosystems?</big> ===
Ecosystems are the planet's life-support systems, for the human species and all other forms of life. Over the past decades, humans have changed natural ecosystems rapidly and extensively. This transformation of the planet has resulted in benefits for human wellbeing (for example, increased lifespan) and economic development, but not all regions and groups of people have gained from this process, and many have been harmed. The full costs of these gains are only
Ecosystems are the planet's life-support systems, for the human species and all other forms of life. Over the past decades, humans have changed natural ecosystems rapidly and extensively. This transformation of the planet has resulted in benefits for human wellbeing (for example, increased lifespan) and economic development, but not all regions and groups of people have gained from this process, and many have been harmed. The full costs of these gains are only just becoming apparent<ref>[https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/43354/9241563095.pdf WHO Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing]</ref>. Economic, social and technological advances have come at the expense of the Earth’s capacity to sustain current and future human wellbeing<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.21</ref>.
As we have already covered in section two, species are currently going extinct tens to hundreds of times faster than the normal extinction rate<ref>[https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf IPBES 2019 Global Assessmen]t SPM Key Messages A5, Background Paragraph 6 </ref><ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Section 3.2 </ref>. Climate change increases the risk of some species becoming extinct, with 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species at greater risk of extinction under 2°C warming, and even higher numbers with greater warming<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Section 3.7 </ref>. It is estimated that more than half a million species have insufficient habitat for their long-term survival, and are committed to early extinction, many within decades, unless their habitats are restored<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.71</ref>.
It’s projected that at 2°C of warming, 13 percent of ecosystems will transform from one ecosystem landscape to another — for example from a rainforest to a savannah ecosystem<ref name=":18" />.
There is a high confidence that rising global temperatures will result in shifts of climate zones, with new, hot climates being created in tropical regions<ref name=":19">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/ IPCC Chapter 2: Land-climate interactions]</ref>, longer fire weather seasons and increased risk of fires in drought-prone regions<ref name=":19" />.
In 2020, less than a quarter of the global land surface still functions in a nearly natural way, with its biodiversity largely intact. This quarter is mostly located in dry, cold, or mountainous areas, and thus far has a low human population and has undergone little transformation<sup><sup>[10]</sup></sup>.
=== <big>… oceans and marine life?</big> ===
The ocean is the home of biodiversity ranging from microbes to marine mammals, and a wide range of ecosystems. Two thirds of the oceans are now impacted by humans. Detrimental human activities include overfishing, coastal and offshore infrastructure and shipping, ocean acidification and waste and nutrient runoff. One third of wild marine fish stocks were overharvested in 2015, and depletion of fish stocks due to overfishing is a huge risk to food security. Fertilisers entering coastal ecosystems have produced more than 400 “dead zones” totaling more than 245,000 km<sup>2</sup> – an area bigger than the Ecuador or the UK<ref name=":20">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.16</ref>. In 2021, a leak at an abandoned fertiliser plant in Florida caused an “algal bloom” that resulted in the death of tonnes of marine life<ref>The Guardian [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/04/florida-imminent-pollution-catastrophe-phosphate-retention-pond-bradenton-piney-point-desantis 1], [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/17/florida-red-tide-fertilizer-plant-spill 2]</ref>.
Plastic pollution in the oceans has increased tenfold since 1980, constituting 60–80 percent of waste found in the oceans. Plastic can be found in all oceans at all depths and concentrates in the ocean currents. Ocean plastic litter causes ecological impacts including entanglement and ingestion by marine life and animals. The risk of irreversible loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, including seagrass meadows and kelp forests, increases with global warming<ref name=":20" />.
At the moment, the Earth’s oceans are absorbing 30 percent of the global CO2 emissions and almost all of the excess heat in the atmosphere, leading to warming sea temperatures. Since 1993, the rate of ocean warming has more than doubled<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate], SPM A2</ref>, resulting in the destruction of coral reefs and extinction of some marine life. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable to climate change and are projected to decline to 10 to 30 percent of former cover at 1.5°C warming, and to less than one percent of former cover at 2°C warming<ref>[https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf IPBES 2019 Global Assessment]</ref>. The accumulation of heat in the oceans will persist for centuries and affect many future generations<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.22</ref>.
Approximately 40 percent of the global population live within 100km (60 miles) of the coast. Around 10 percent of the world’s population live in coastal areas that are less than 10 meters above sea level<ref>[https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Ocean-fact-sheet-package.pdf UN]</ref>. As a result of climate change, sea levels are rising, the ocean is warming and seawater is becoming more acidic due to carbon dioxide intake. Even if warming is kept well below 2°C, there is a high confidence that communities in all regions of the world – especially coastal communities – will still have to adapt to these changes in the world’s oceans<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate]</ref>.
As a result of ocean temperatures warming, many marine species have changed their behaviour and location, bringing them into contact with different species, causing disruption to ecosystems and increasing the risk of spreading disease<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate], SPM A4, A5 & A6</ref>.
Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to
millennia, especially changes in the ocean circulation, ice sheets and global sea level.
== Can we predict what will happen next? ==
'''''Even science cannot predict the future with absolute certainty. In this section, we look at feedback loops and tipping points as examples of uncertainty around the future of our climate.'''''
Living with climate change means living with uncertainty<ref>[https://gar.undrr.org/sites/default/files/gar19distilled.pdf 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction]</ref>. One of these uncertainties is around the idea of a “tipping point”.
Imagine a glass of water being tipped over. Depending on how much water is in the glass, there will be a point where the glass is tipped so much that the water will pour out of the glass. Once the water has left the glass, it’s impossible to put it back.
Climate tipping points are a “point of no return”, when the combined effects of climate change result in irreversible damages that would “cascade” across the world, like dominos. Once a tipping point is reached, a series of events is triggered, leading towards the creation of a planet that is inhospitable for many people and other lifeforms<ref name=":8" />.
The IPCC introduced the idea of tipping points two decades ago. A possible tipping point is the melting of land ice in the polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica), leading to many meters of sea-level rise over time. Models suggest that the '''Greenland ice sheet''' could eventually disappear at 1.5 °C of warming<ref name=":8" /><sup><sup>]</sup></sup>, although only after many years. In July 2021, a heat wave caused Greenland to lose enough ice to cover the US state of Florida in 2 inches (5cm) of water in one day<ref>"[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greenland-experienced-massive-ice-melt-this-week-scientists-say-2021-07-30/ Greenland experienced 'massive' ice melt this week, scientists say.]” Reuters</ref> <sup><sup>[5]</sup></sup>. Sea ice is already shrinking rapidly in the Arctic, indicating that, at 2°C of warming, the region has a 10–35 percent chance of becoming largely ice-free in the summer<sup><sup>[6]</sup></sup>.
Another possible tipping point is the large-scale destruction of rainforests like the Amazon, which is home to one in 10known land-based species. Estimates of where an Amazon tipping point could lie range from 40 percent deforestation to just 20 percent forest-cover loss. About 17 percent has been lost since 1970<sup><sup>[7]</sup></sup>, with more being lost due to human deforestation every minute.
Moving closer to tipping points such as ice sheets melting, deforestation, melting of permafrost and changes in ocean circulation (or a combination of these) creates a cycle which scientists refer to as a “feedback loop”, where climate change causes a cascade of effects that result in even more climate change.
An example of this can be found in the Arctic. The greenhouse gas methane is currently “stored” in Arctic permafrost. As global warming causes the permafrost to melt, the methane stored is released into the atmosphere, adding yet more greenhouse gas emissions that can lead to further global warming. More warming results in more melting permafrost, adding yet more methane to the atmosphere to create even more warming and more melting permafrost, and on
----<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup> 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
<sup><sup>[2]</sup></sup> Lenton. Climate Tipping Points too Risky to Bet Against
<sup><sup>[3]</sup></sup> Lenton. Climate Tipping Points too Risky to Bet Against
<sup><sup>[4]</sup></sup> “Greenland experienced 'massive' ice melt this week, scientists say.” Reuters
<sup><sup>[5]</sup></sup> IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.
<sup><sup>[6]</sup></sup> IPCC Special Report on Polar Regions
<sup><sup>[7]</sup></sup> Lenton. Climate Tipping Points too Risky to Bet Against
----<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup> UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature, pg.16
<sup><sup>[2]</sup></sup> IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, SPM A2
<sup><sup>[3]</sup></sup> IPBES 2019 Global Assessment
<sup><sup>[4]</sup></sup> UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature, pg.22
<sup><sup>[5]</sup></sup> UN
<sup><sup>[6]</sup></sup> IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
<sup><sup>[7]</sup></sup> IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, SPM A4, A5 & A6
----<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup> WHO Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing
<sup><sup>[2]</sup></sup> UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature, pg.21
<sup><sup>[3]</sup></sup> IPBES 2019 Global Assessment SPM Key Messages A5, Background Paragraph 6
<sup><sup>[4]</sup></sup> UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, SPM Section 3.2
<sup><sup>[5]</sup></sup> UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, SPM Section 3.7
<sup><sup>[6]</sup></sup> UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature, pg.71
<sup><sup>[7]</sup></sup> IPCC Summary for Policy Makers
<sup><sup>[8]</sup></sup> IPCC Chapter 2: Land-climate interactions
<sup><sup>[9]</sup></sup> IPCC Chapter 2: Land-climate interactions
<sup><sup>[10]</sup></sup> UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature, pg.71
<sup><sup>[11]</sup></sup> UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature, pg.16
<sup><sup>[12]</sup></sup> The Guardian 1, 2