Cluster-Facilitator, Cluster-Facilitators, Community-Host, Community-Hosts, Bots, Bureaucrats, Interface administrators, Suppressors, Administrators, translator
447
edits
Changes
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
Line 495:
Line 495: − == Can we predict what will happen next? == <!--T:135--> − '''''Even science cannot predict the future with absolute certainty. In this section, we look at feedback loops and tipping points as examples of uncertainty around the future of our climate.''''' − − <!--T:136--> − Living with climate change means living with uncertainty<ref name=":22">[https://gar.undrr.org/sites/default/files/gar19distilled.pdf 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction]</ref>. One of these uncertainties is around the idea of a “tipping point”. − − − <!--T:137--> − Imagine a glass of water being tipped over. Depending on how much water is in the glass, there will be a point where the glass is tipped so much that the water will pour out of the glass. Once the water has left the glass, it’s impossible to put it back. − − − <!--T:138--> − Climate tipping points are a “point of no return”, when the combined effects of climate change result in irreversible damages that would “cascade” across the world, like dominos. Once a tipping point is reached, a series of events is triggered, leading towards the creation of a planet that is inhospitable for many people and other lifeforms<ref name=":8" />. − − − <!--T:139--> − The IPCC introduced the idea of tipping points two decades ago. A possible tipping point is the melting of land ice in the polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica), leading to many meters of sea-level rise over time. Models suggest that the '''Greenland ice sheet''' could eventually disappear at 1.5 °C of warming<ref name=":8" /><sup><sup>]</sup></sup>, although only after many years. In July 2021, a heat wave caused Greenland to lose enough ice to cover the US state of Florida in 2 inches (5cm) of water in one day<ref>"[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greenland-experienced-massive-ice-melt-this-week-scientists-say-2021-07-30/ Greenland experienced 'massive' ice melt this week, scientists say.]” Reuters</ref> <ref name=":21" />. Sea ice is already shrinking rapidly in the Arctic, indicating that, at 2°C of warming, the region has a 10–35 percent chance of becoming largely ice-free in the summer<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/ IPCC Special Report on Polar Regions]</ref>. − − − <!--T:140--> − Another possible tipping point is the large-scale destruction of rainforests like the Amazon, which is home to one in 10known land-based species. Estimates of where an Amazon tipping point could lie range from 40 percent deforestation to just 20 percent forest-cover loss. About 17 percent has been lost since 1970<ref name=":8" />, with more being lost due to human deforestation every minute. − − − <!--T:141--> − Moving closer to tipping points such as ice sheets melting, deforestation, melting of permafrost and changes in ocean circulation (or a combination of these) creates a cycle which scientists refer to as a “feedback loop”, where climate change causes a cascade of effects that result in even more climate change. − − − − <!--T:142--> − An example of this can be found in the Arctic. The greenhouse gas methane is currently “stored” in Arctic permafrost. As global warming causes the permafrost to melt, the methane stored is released into the atmosphere, adding yet more greenhouse gas emissions that can lead to further global warming. More warming results in more melting permafrost, adding yet more methane to the atmosphere to create even more warming and more melting permafrost, and on and on. These feedback loops are non-linear, meaning they can’t be predicted with any certainty and could arise in a way that science has not predicted<ref name=":22" />. − − − <!--T:143--> − The next 10 years will be critical for adapting to and mitigating climate change. Being well informed about the risks and causes of climate change helps us to make the best decisions in the present, but it is still not possible to predict the future with 100 percent certainty. Climate change is happening much faster than efforts to address it, and the past is not a reliable indicator of the future<ref name=":22" />. Going forward, the future is uncertain. This understanding creates discomfort (a sense of things being out of control), but also opportunity<ref name=":22" />. There is still time to avert the crisis, if action is taken now. − − <!--T:144--> − [[File:Information Booklet Climate tipping elements.png|alt=Figure 2: Climate tipping elements that could cross this century due to human activities (from Lenton et. al., 2019, Nature)|center|thumb|596x596px|Figure 2: Climate tipping elements that could cross this century due to human activities (from Lenton et. al., 2019, Nature)]] − − == Scenarios and pathways == <!--T:145--> − [Content TBD] − − == What action is already being taken == <!--T:146--> − '''''It’s been six years since the Paris Agreement. What action has been taken by countries so far to reduce emissions and biodiversity loss, and what more needs to be done?''''' − − === <big>Energy transition</big> === <!--T:147--> − One of the most important actions of the next decade will be to switch electricity generation to renewable sources and away from fossil fuels. So far, the increasing availability of renewable energy has not displaced fossil fuels, but instead contributed to a growth in total energy use<ref name=":10" />. − − − <!--T:148--> − Universal access to clean and affordable energy requires a transformation of both the production and use of energy<ref name=":11" />. To reduce coal use by 70 percent by 2030 means a five-fold increase in wind and solar energy, as well as phasing out and closing 2,400 coal-fired power stations globally within the next decade<ref name=":9" />. Facilitating the transition to replace fossil-fuel energy with renewable energy will be expensive, but it is much cheaper to mitigate climate change than to adapt to climate change<ref>Burke et al, [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0071-9/ Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets]</ref>. − − <!--T:149--> − − − <!--T:150--> − Additionally, there are multiple economic and health benefits from transitioning to a low-carbon economy, such as a reduction in urban air pollution<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], Section 4.1</ref> <ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ IPCC 2018 Global Warming of 1.5oC], Chapter 3, section 5.2</ref> <ref>[https://www.unep.org/resources/global-environment-outlook-6 Global Environmental Outlook 6 2019], Key Message 19, Chapter 24.4, and Box 24.1</ref>. − − − <!--T:151--> − Solar and wind energy are now cheaper than coal or gas-fired plants in most countries, and solar projects offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen<ref>[https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020 International Energy Agency 2020 World Energy Outlook Executive Summary]</ref>. However, the increasing availability of renewable energy has so far just increased the global demand for energy, not replaced energy created from fossil fuels<ref name=":10" />. − − − <!--T:152--> − The early retirement or repurposing of energy infrastructure is necessary to meet Paris commitments. Many studies show that simply allowing existing fossil fuel facilities to run until their expected end of life would not keep emissions below both 1.5°C and 2°C<ref name=":10" />. − − <!--T:153--> − Increasing the supply of clean energy is important for achieving sustainable economic growth while limiting global warming. Clean energy will reduce poverty and indoor and outdoor air pollution and provide critical services such as communications, lighting and water pumping<ref name=":11" />. − − − <!--T:154--> − Improving and increasing energy efficiency could reduce CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 40 percent by 2040. This would require efficiency gains in transportation (for example, electric cars), in households (more efficient houses and appliances) and in industry. Households worldwide could also save more than $500 billion dollars per year in energy bills by increasing their energy efficiency (electricity, natural gas for heating and cooking and fuel for transportation)<ref name=":9" />. − − === <big>Conservation and restoration</big> === <!--T:155--> − The issues of climate change, loss of biodiversity, land degradation, and air and water pollution are interconnected. A key challenge of the next decades will be to recognize the interconnected nature of these issues, and make sure that actions to address one do not have unintended consequences on the other. For example, the replacing of native vegetation with monoculture crops for supplying bioenergy<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], pg.107</ref>, or the destruction of ecosystems to build renewable energy infrastructure<ref>[https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-can-save-the-natural-world-but-if-were-not-careful-it-will-also-hurt-it-145166 Renewable energy can save the natural world – but if we’re not careful, it will also hurt it]. The Conversation</ref>. − − − <!--T:156--> − Large-scale reforestation with native vegetation simultaneously addresses the issues of biodiversity loss, land degradation, and air and water pollution. − − − <!--T:157--> − Restoring ecosystems increases the capacity of forests, the ocean and soil to absorb carbon dioxide. Today, nature is only able to absorb around half of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, more or less equally split between land-based ecosystems and the ocean, with the remainder staying in the atmosphere and causing the Earth to warm<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Executive Summary] section B, Sections 2.3.2 in main report, and figure 2.8</ref>. − − − <!--T:158--> − Forests currently absorb less than a quarter of the carbon emissions from fossil fuels and industry<ref>Brack, Duncan, [https://www.un.org/esa/forests/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/UNFF14-BkgdStudy-SDG13-March2019.pdf Forests and Climate Change]</ref>, with the potential to store much more. − − − <!--T:159--> − Agriculture is a big driver of biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Transitioning the food production system to using agricultural methods that work with nature is critical for restoring natural ecosystems and building the capacities of soil to sequester carbon. Sustainable agricultural methods help to eliminate hunger and malnutrition, and contribute to human health. Sustainable agriculture conserves and restores soils and ecosystems, improving local biodiversity, rather than degrading it<ref name=":4" />. − − − <!--T:160--> − Small-scale farmers, particularly women farmers, are central to the challenge of achieving sustainable food security and need to be empowered through access to financing, education and training, and information and technology<ref name=":4" />. − − === <big>Global awareness</big> === <!--T:161--> − Since the ''[https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC]'' from the IPCC in 2018 and the ''Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Global Assessment'' in 2019, global awareness of the climate and ecological crisis has risen considerably. − − − <!--T:162--> − In 2021, the UN published the results of the Peoples’ Climate Vote<ref name=":1" />. With 1.2 million respondents from across the world, it is the largest survey of public opinion on climate change ever conducted, giving an insight into public opinions on climate solutions like renewable energy and nature conservation. In many of the participating countries, it was the first time that large-scale polling of public opinion has ever been conducted on the topic of climate change. − − − <!--T:163--> − The Peoples’ Climate Vote found that nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of people in 50 countries believe that climate change is a global emergency. This is important information for governments in the run up to the Glasgow COP26, as it shows that the majority of people believe that it is vital to act on climate change now. − − − <!--T:164--> − The survey also found a high level of support across the world for the conservation of forests and land, the implementation of renewable energy, climate friendly farming techniques and investment in green business. − − − <!--T:165--> − In countries with a high level of deforestation – Brazil, Indonesia and Argentina – there was a majority support for conserving forests and land. In countries where there are high carbon emissions from heating and electricity use – the US, Australia, Germany, South Africa, Japan, Poland and Russia – there was a majority support for renewable energy. − − − <!--T:166--> − The results of the survey are significant as they show broad support for climate action across the world and amongst different age groups, education levels, nationalities and genders<ref>[https://www.undp.org/publications/peoples-climate-vote People’s’ Climate Vote Results]</ref>. − − <!--T:167--> − As well as putting pressure on governments to act on climate change and exercising their voting and civic rights, individuals can facilitate a global shift towards a low carbon future through individual action. When it comes to the role of individuals in reducing carbon emissions, people in some countries can have a higher impact in reducing emissions than others, based on their CO<sub>2</sub> emissions per person. Individuals in these countries can facilitate a global shift towards a low carbon future through changing their diets (for example eating less, or no, meat) and travel habits (for example flying or driving less), avoiding waste of food and resources, and reducing their consumption of water and energy. These actions can also help protect and conserve biodiversity. People can also promote behavioural change by raising awareness in their communities<ref>[http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions Global Carbon Atlas, CO2 emissions per person (2017)]</ref>. − − − <!--T:168--> − Countries where people can have the highest impact in reducing emissions, ordered by their CO<sub>2</sub> emission per person, are Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Brunei Darussalam, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Australia, the US, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Canada, Estonia, Palau, Oman, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkmenistan, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Iceland, Czechia, Bermuda, Mongolia, Germany, Netherlands and Japan. − − − <!--T:169--> − Impact from individual actions to reduce emissions will be also high in Belgium, Poland, Norway, Libya, Ireland, Finland, Iran, Malaysia, South Africa, Niue, Austria, Israel, New Zealand, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, China, Bulgaria, Greece, Andorra, Slovakia, Bahamas, Belarus, Seychelles, Cyprus, Spain, Denmark, Italy, the UK, Turkey, Antigua and Barbuda, France, Portugal, Equatorial Guinea, Hungary, Serbia and Iraq<ref name=":9" />. − − == Distribution and fairness == <!--T:170--> − Some countries started emitting a significant amount of CO<sub>2</sub> centuries ago; others only started relatively recently. The reason global annual emissions are now rising is because of the rapid growth of emerging economies, especially in Asia, the Middle East and in Central and South America. Almost all growth in emissions this century will come from developing countries<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34438/EGR20ESE.pdf?sequence=25 UN Emissions Gap Report 2020]</ref>. − − − <!--T:171--> − Rich countries such as the US and the EU member states have outsourced the more carbon-intensive parts of their production chain to countries such as China and India. For example, a large percentage of electronic goods that are used all over the world are made in China. This merely displaces emissions to these countries, rather than reducing them<ref name=":10" />. − − <!--T:172--> − The difference in impact between those most responsible for causing climate change and those most vulnerable to its impacts are difficult to comprehend. The wealthiest 1 percent of the world’s population are responsible for twice the emissions of the poorest half<ref name=":10" />. − − − <!--T:173--> − The industrialized nations that became rich from burning fossil fuels have the best resources to lead now. In the light of different national circumstances, the Paris Agreement calls for “rapid reductions” of emissions to be achieved “on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty”<ref name=":23">[https://unfoundation.org/our-common-agenda/climate-report/ United Nations Foundation, Climate Analytics and E3G. The Value of Climate Cooperation: Networked and Inclusive Multilateralism to Meet 1.5°C. (Washington DC, 2021)] </ref>. − − − <!--T:174--> − Today there is an increasing focus on adapting and adjusting to the realities of climate change. Adaptation is specifically discussed in the Paris Agreement. What adaptation to climate change looks like will be different for different communities in different parts of the world. − − − <!--T:175--> − The warmer the world becomes the greater each sector is affected. The greater the degradation of ecosystems, the more difficult it will be to adapt. Poor and marginalized communities – including those in wealthy countries – lack the basic capacities needed to adapt to current levels of warming<ref name=":10" />. − − − <!--T:176--> − In many cases, adaptation will not be possible at all, for example in some places agriculture will no longer be possible due to higher temperatures and lack of water resources. Developing countries are, in general, most vulnerable due to the impacts being greater, coupled with a lack of financial, and technological infrastructure<ref>[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-020-00807-9 Loss and Damage and limits to adaptation: recent IPCC insights and implications for climate science and policy]</ref>. Moreover, the marginalization of these communities has typically been tied to the very processes that cause climate change, including colonialism, exploitation of resources (often while degrading the ecological resources that support local livelihoods) and fossil fuel–driven capital accumulation<ref name=":10" />. − − − <!--T:177--> − Richer countries will have more resources than poor countries to adapt to the demands of a changing climate, meaning that there is a need for financial aid and technological assistance to poorer countries. The greater the degree of warming the greater the impacts on societies, economies, human health and ecosystems, hence the greater the challenge of adaptation. − − − <!--T:178--> − Of the 192 countries that have submitted pledges to the Paris Agreement, 127 (including India) are partially or totally conditional. This means that without international finance or technical support, these pledges may not be implemented. These conditional pledges were mostly put forward by countries that lack the financial capability to reduce emissions as well as the technological and institutional capacity<ref name=":9" />. − − − <!--T:179--> − Many of these commitments may not be implemented because, so far, little international support has materialized<ref name=":9" />. − − − <!--T:180--> − The issue of climate change also brings up questions of generational responsibility. Older generations benefitted the most from economic development as a result of burning fossil fuels, whereas younger generations will – and are – suffering the consequences. − − == Glasgow and beyond: what’s needed next? == <!--T:181--> − The climate and ecological emergencies are already with us and getting worse as greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow and humans continue to destroy biodiversity. The damages from climate change are worse than expected a decade ago, and are already being felt across the globe. To keep the goal of limiting warming to a maximum 1.5°C within reach, significant reductions in emissions are needed in the 2020s, as well as in the following decades. − − − <!--T:182--> − The past five years have had some successes. Solar and wind power have turned out to be much cheaper and easier to implement than predicted, electric vehicles are becoming more common and available, and low carbon technologies are competitive in a growing number of markets. There is increasing recognition that emissions need to be reduced in the sectors that are the toughest to decarbonize, such as aviation. A 2018 report on the aviation industry found that current plans to update technologies and improve operations will not mitigate the expected fuel demand and emissions<ref>[https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/roadmap-decarbonising-european-aviation/ Roadmap to decarbonising European aviation]</ref>. Roadmaps are emerging for taking on emissions from heavy industry. − − − <!--T:183--> − Now that the goals of the Paris Agreement have been set, the Glasgow COP26 is expected to be about creating a more detailed roadmap of how to achieve them. Some important questions for the conference will include how to transition away from fossil fuels and how to convert net-zero pledges into action. To develop the next stages will require leadership on all levels, from individuals to businesses and investors, to government<ref name=":9" />. Amid the ongoing disruption of the Covid-19 pandemic, decision-makers are distracted. Collaboration and cooperation between individuals, institutions and countries will be key. − − − <!--T:184--> − One way to strengthen the goals of the Paris Agreement will be to encourage countries to make legally binding commitments that cover all emissions. The EU and the UK are among the countries to have made their Paris commitments legally-binding, but have not necessarily put the policies in place to achieve those commitments. More governments need to make their commitments legally binding<ref name=":23" />. − − − − <!--T:185--> − One key issue that must be addressed at the Climate Change Convention (COP26) and the Biodiversity Convention (COP15) is financing and technology cooperation. Most developing countries will need financial assistance to mitigate climate change, adapt to climate change, and to conserve and restore biodiversity. − − − <!--T:186--> − Another important question of the next decade will be how to frame the climate and ecological crisis so as not to destroy hope and create an atmosphere of fear, but instead build solidarity between people and the planet. Integrating many different perspectives, including indigenous perspectives, into climate and biodiversity solutions will be crucial in fulfilling the UN Sustainable Development Goals, including the climate and biodiversity goals, which promise to “leave no one behind”<ref>[https://unsdg.un.org/2030-agenda/universal-values/leave-no-one-behind UN Universal Values, Principle Two: Leave No One Behind]</ref> in the transition to more sustainable societies. − − − <!--T:187--> − The task will be to use stories from trusted messengers, as well as data from experts, to prove that this is a task that can be – and is being – done. To recognize how far we have already come, so that past successes open a path to further action. And to keep the pressure on, while also rewarding progress<ref>[https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1bDitcSh30QHMjpAsSh8M3zf3ocp2Lxgu The Value of Climate Cooperation]</ref>. − − − <!--T:188--> − It is vital that governments start to recognize the interactions between the climate and ecological crisis, and develop mutually compatible goals, targets and actions.
Information Booklet (view source)
Revision as of 02:29, 30 September 2021
, 02:29, 30 September 2021no edit summary
millennia, especially changes in the ocean circulation, ice sheets and global sea level.
millennia, especially changes in the ocean circulation, ice sheets and global sea level.
== Glossary == <!--T:189-->
== Glossary == <!--T:189-->