Changes

In 2010, parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, a ten-year framework for action by all countries to protect biodiversity and the benefits it provides to people. As part of the strategic plan, 20 ambitious but realistic targets, known as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, were adopted<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf Making Peace with Nature Report], p.71</ref>.

In 2010, parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, a ten-year framework for action by all countries to protect biodiversity and the benefits it provides to people. As part of the strategic plan, 20 ambitious but realistic targets, known as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, were adopted<ref name=":0">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf Making Peace with Nature Report], p.71</ref>.

Climate change risks to food security and access are expected to become high between 1.2-3.5°C of warming, very high between 3-4°C warming, and catastrophic at 4°C and above. Rising CO₂ concentrations are expected to reduce the protein and nutrient content of major cereal crops, which would further reduce food and nutritional security<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Background Section 3.7 </ref>.

Climate change risks to food security and access are expected to become high between 1.2-3.5°C of warming, very high between 3-4°C warming, and catastrophic at 4°C and above. Rising CO₂ concentrations are expected to reduce the protein and nutrient content of major cereal crops, which would further reduce food and nutritional security<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Background Section 3.7 </ref>.

Pressure on ecosystems as a result of the ecological crisis has resulted in the depletion or degradation of freshwater sources.  

Pressure on ecosystems as a result of the ecological crisis has resulted in the depletion or degradation of freshwater sources.  

About 80 percent of the world’s population already suffers from serious threats to water security<ref name=":162" />. It’s clear that climate change can affect the availability of water and threaten water security due to changes in rain patterns. In general, rain is increasing in tropical and high-altitude regions, and decreasing in the sub-tropics due to climate change<ref>IPCC 2014 WG II SPM A1, and Assessment Box SPM2 Table 1</ref>. In 2017, around 2.2 billion people did not have access to safely managed drinking water. More than 2 billion people globally live in river basins suffering water stress, where the need for freshwater exceeds 40 percent of what is available. In some countries in Africa and Asia, needs exceed 70 percent of the freshwater available<ref name=":17">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature,] SPM Section 4.2 </ref>

About 80 percent of the world’s population already suffers from serious threats to water security<ref name=":16">[https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/ IPCC]</ref>. It’s clear that climate change can affect the availability of water and threaten water security due to changes in rain patterns. In general, rain is increasing in tropical and high-altitude regions, and decreasing in the sub-tropics due to climate change<ref>IPCC 2014 WG II SPM A1, and Assessment Box SPM2 Table 1</ref>. In 2017, around 2.2 billion people did not have access to safely managed drinking water. More than 2 billion people globally live in river basins suffering water stress, where the need for freshwater exceeds 40 percent of what is available. In some countries in Africa and Asia, needs exceed 70 percent of the freshwater available<ref name=":17">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature,] SPM Section 4.2 </ref>.

Lack of access to clean water is also a food security issue, as the primary use of freshwater worldwide is for watering crops (irrigation), currently accounting for 70 percent of freshwater withdrawals<ref name=":4">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Executive Summary] </ref>. About 1.2 billion people live in areas where severe water shortages and scarcity challenge agriculture<ref>[http://www.fao.org/3/cb1447en/online/cb1447en.html#chapter-executive_summary Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN]</ref>. Over the last century, population growth, industrial and agricultural activities and living standards have created more demand for water across the world<ref name=":17" />.

Lack of access to clean water is also a food security issue, as the primary use of freshwater worldwide is for watering crops (irrigation), currently accounting for 70 percent of freshwater withdrawals<ref name=":4">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature, Executive Summary] </ref>. About 1.2 billion people live in areas where severe water shortages and scarcity challenge agriculture<ref>[http://www.fao.org/3/cb1447en/online/cb1447en.html#chapter-executive_summary Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN]</ref>. Over the last century, population growth, industrial and agricultural activities and living standards have created more demand for water across the world<ref name=":17" />.

Wetlands are being lost globally, threatening water quality in many regions of the world.

Wetlands are being lost globally, threatening water quality in many regions of the world.

=== <big>… land-based biodiversity and ecosystems?</big> === <!--T:123-->

=== <big>… land-based biodiversity and ecosystems?</big> ===

Ecosystems are the planet's life-support systems, for the human species and all other forms of life. Over the past decades, humans have changed natural ecosystems rapidly and extensively. This transformation of the planet has resulted in benefits for human wellbeing (for example, increased lifespan) and economic development, but not all regions and groups of people have gained from this process, and many have been harmed. The full costs of these gains are only just becoming apparent<ref>[https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/43354/9241563095.pdf WHO Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing]</ref>. Economic, social and technological advances have come at the expense of the Earth’s capacity to sustain current and future human wellbeing<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.21</ref>.

Ecosystems are the planet's life-support systems, for the human species and all other forms of life. Over the past decades, humans have changed natural ecosystems rapidly and extensively. This transformation of the planet has resulted in benefits for human wellbeing (for example, increased lifespan) and economic development, but not all regions and groups of people have gained from this process, and many have been harmed. The full costs of these gains are only just becoming apparent<ref>[https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/43354/9241563095.pdf WHO Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing]</ref>. Economic, social and technological advances have come at the expense of the Earth’s capacity to sustain current and future human wellbeing<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.21</ref>.

As we have already covered in section two, species are currently going extinct tens to hundreds of times faster than the normal extinction rate<ref>[https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf IPBES 2019 Global Assessmen]t SPM Key Messages A5, Background Paragraph 6 </ref><ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Section 3.2 </ref>. Climate change increases the risk of some species becoming extinct, with 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species at greater risk of extinction under 2°C warming, and even higher numbers with greater warming<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Section 3.7 </ref>. It is estimated that more than half a million species have insufficient habitat for their long-term survival, and are committed to early extinction, many within decades, unless their habitats are restored<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.71</ref>.

As we have already covered in section two, species are currently going extinct tens to hundreds of times faster than the normal extinction rate<ref>[https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf IPBES 2019 Global Assessmen]t SPM Key Messages A5, Background Paragraph 6 </ref><ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34949/MPN_ESEN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Section 3.2 </ref>. Climate change increases the risk of some species becoming extinct, with 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species at greater risk of extinction under 2°C warming, and even higher numbers with greater warming<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021, Making Peace with Nature], SPM Section 3.7 </ref>. It is estimated that more than half a million species have insufficient habitat for their long-term survival, and are committed to early extinction, many within decades, unless their habitats are restored<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.71</ref>.

It’s projected that at 2°C of warming, 13 percent of ecosystems will transform from one ecosystem landscape to another — for example from a rainforest to a savannah ecosystem<ref name=":18" />.

It’s projected that at 2°C of warming, 13 percent of ecosystems will transform from one ecosystem landscape to another — for example from a rainforest to a savannah ecosystem<ref name=":18" />.

There is a high confidence that rising global temperatures will result in shifts of climate zones, with new, hot climates being created in tropical regions<ref name=":19">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/ IPCC Chapter 2: Land-climate interactions]</ref>, longer fire weather seasons and increased risk of fires in drought-prone regions<ref name=":19" />.

There is a high confidence that rising global temperatures will result in shifts of climate zones, with new, hot climates being created in tropical regions<ref name=":19">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/ IPCC Chapter 2: Land-climate interactions]</ref>, longer fire weather seasons and increased risk of fires in drought-prone regions<ref name=":19" />.

In 2020, less than a quarter of the global land surface still functions in a nearly natural way, with its biodiversity largely intact. This quarter is mostly located in dry, cold, or mountainous areas, and thus far has a low human population and has undergone little transformation<ref name=":0" />.  

In 2020, less than a quarter of the global land surface still functions in a nearly natural way, with its biodiversity largely intact. This quarter is mostly located in dry, cold, or mountainous areas, and thus far has a low human population and has undergone little transformation^{^[10]}.  

 

=== <big>… oceans and marine life?</big> ===

=== <big>… oceans and marine life?</big> === <!--T:128-->

The ocean is the home of biodiversity ranging from microbes to marine mammals, and a wide range of ecosystems. Two thirds of the oceans are now impacted by humans. Detrimental human activities include overfishing, coastal and offshore infrastructure and shipping, ocean acidification and waste and nutrient runoff. One third of wild marine fish stocks were overharvested in 2015, and depletion of fish stocks due to overfishing is a huge risk to food security. Fertilisers entering coastal ecosystems have produced more than 400 “dead zones” totaling more than 245,000 km² – an area bigger than the Ecuador or the UK<ref name=":20">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.16</ref>. In 2021, a leak at an abandoned fertiliser plant in Florida caused an “algal bloom” that resulted in the death of tonnes of marine life<ref>The Guardian [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/04/florida-imminent-pollution-catastrophe-phosphate-retention-pond-bradenton-piney-point-desantis 1], [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/17/florida-red-tide-fertilizer-plant-spill 2]</ref>.

The ocean is the home of biodiversity ranging from microbes to marine mammals, and a wide range of ecosystems. Two thirds of the oceans are now impacted by humans. Detrimental human activities include overfishing, coastal and offshore infrastructure and shipping, ocean acidification and waste and nutrient runoff. One third of wild marine fish stocks were overharvested in 2015, and depletion of fish stocks due to overfishing is a huge risk to food security. Fertilisers entering coastal ecosystems have produced more than 400 “dead zones” totaling more than 245,000 km² – an area bigger than the Ecuador or the UK<ref name=":20">[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.16</ref>. In 2021, a leak at an abandoned fertiliser plant in Florida caused an “algal bloom” that resulted in the death of tonnes of marine life<ref>The Guardian [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/04/florida-imminent-pollution-catastrophe-phosphate-retention-pond-bradenton-piney-point-desantis 1], [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/17/florida-red-tide-fertilizer-plant-spill 2]</ref>.

Plastic pollution in the oceans has increased tenfold since 1980, constituting 60–80 percent of waste found in the oceans. Plastic can be found in all oceans at all depths and concentrates in the ocean currents. Ocean plastic litter causes ecological impacts including entanglement and ingestion by marine life and animals. The risk of irreversible loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, including seagrass meadows and kelp forests, increases with global warming<ref name=":20" />.

Plastic pollution in the oceans has increased tenfold since 1980, constituting 60–80 percent of waste found in the oceans. Plastic can be found in all oceans at all depths and concentrates in the ocean currents. Ocean plastic litter causes ecological impacts including entanglement and ingestion by marine life and animals. The risk of irreversible loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, including seagrass meadows and kelp forests, increases with global warming<ref name=":20" />.  

At the moment, the Earth’s oceans are absorbing 30 percent of the global CO₂ emissions and almost all of the excess heat in the atmosphere, leading to warming sea temperatures. Since 1993, the rate of ocean warming has more than doubled<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate], SPM A2</ref>, resulting in the destruction of coral reefs and extinction of some marine life. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable to climate change and are projected to decline to 10 to 30 percent of former cover at 1.5°C warming, and to less than one percent of former cover at 2°C warming (that is, 99 percent of coral reefs would be lost at 2°C warming)<ref>[https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf IPBES 2019 Global Assessment]</ref>. The accumulation of heat in the oceans will persist for centuries and affect many future generations<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.22</ref>.  

At the moment, the Earth’s oceans are absorbing 30 percent of the global CO2 emissions and almost all of the excess heat in the atmosphere, leading to warming sea temperatures. Since 1993, the rate of ocean warming has more than doubled<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate], SPM A2</ref>, resulting in the destruction of coral reefs and extinction of some marine life. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable to climate change and are projected to decline to 10 to 30 percent of former cover at 1.5°C warming, and to less than one percent of former cover at 2°C warming<ref>[https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf IPBES 2019 Global Assessment]</ref>. The accumulation of heat in the oceans will persist for centuries and affect many future generations<ref>[https://wedocs.unep.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34948/MPN.pdf UNEP 2021 Making Peace with Nature], pg.22</ref>.  

Approximately 40 percent of the global population live within 100km (60 miles) of the coast. Around 10 percent of the world’s population live in coastal areas that are less than 10 meters above sea level<ref>[https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Ocean-fact-sheet-package.pdf UN]</ref>. As a result of climate change, sea levels are rising, the ocean is warming and seawater is becoming more acidic due to carbon dioxide intake. Even if warming is kept well below 2°C, there is a high confidence that communities in all regions of the world – especially coastal communities – will still have to adapt to these changes in the world’s oceans<ref name=":21">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate]</ref>.

Approximately 40 percent of the global population live within 100km (60 miles) of the coast. Around 10 percent of the world’s population live in coastal areas that are less than 10 meters above sea level<ref>[https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Ocean-fact-sheet-package.pdf UN]</ref>. As a result of climate change, sea levels are rising, the ocean is warming and seawater is becoming more acidic due to carbon dioxide intake. Even if warming is kept well below 2°C, there is a high confidence that communities in all regions of the world – especially coastal communities – will still have to adapt to these changes in the world’s oceans<ref name=":21">[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate]</ref>.

As a result of ocean temperatures warming, many marine species have changed their behaviour and location, bringing them into contact with different species, causing disruption to ecosystems and increasing the risk of spreading disease<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate], SPM A4, A5 & A6</ref>.

As a result of ocean temperatures warming, many marine species have changed their behaviour and location, bringing them into contact with different species, causing disruption to ecosystems and increasing the risk of spreading disease<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ IPCC 2019 Special Report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate], SPM A4, A5 & A6</ref>.

Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to

Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to

millennia, especially changes in the ocean circulation, ice sheets and global sea level.

millennia, especially changes in the ocean circulation, ice sheets and global sea level.

<\translate>

== <big>Glossary</big> ==

== Glossary == <!--T:189-->

'''Adaptation:''' To change, adjust or improve something so as to make it suitable for a different situation.

'''Adaptation:''' To change, adjust or improve something so as to make it suitable for a different situation.

'''Carbon budget:''' An amount of carbon dioxide that a country, company, or organization has agreed is the largest it will produce in a particular period of time.

'''Carbon budget:''' An amount of carbon dioxide that a country, company, or organization has agreed is the largest it will produce in a particular period of time.

'''Carbon dioxide (CO₂):''' Carbon dioxide is a gas consisting of one part carbon and two parts oxygen.

'''Carbon dioxide (CO₂):''' Carbon dioxide is a gas consisting of one part carbon and two parts oxygen.

'''Conference of the Parties (COP):''' The decision-making body responsible for monitoring and reviewing the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

'''Conference of the Parties (COP):''' The decision-making body responsible for monitoring and reviewing the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

'''Decarbonizing:''' The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions through the use of low carbon power sources, meaning less greenhouse gasses are emitted into the atmosphere.

'''Decarbonizing:''' The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions through the use of low carbon power sources, meaning less greenhouse gasses are emitted into the atmosphere.

'''Economic growth:''' Economic growth is an increase in the goods and services produced in a market (for example, a country's economy). Economic growth is measured in terms of gross domestic product, or '''GDP'''.

'''Economic growth:''' Economic growth is an increase in the goods and services produced in a market (for example, a country's economy). Economic growth is measured in terms of gross domestic product, or '''GDP'''.

'''Equity:''' “Common but differentiated responsibilities” (CBDR) is a principle of international environmental law establishing that all states are responsible for addressing global environmental destruction, yet not equally responsible<ref>[https://www.britannica.com/topic/common-but-differentiated-responsibilities CBDR - Britannica]</ref>.  

'''Equity:''' “Common but differentiated responsibilities” (CBDR) is a principle of international environmental law establishing that all states are responsible for addressing global environmental destruction, yet not equally responsible<ref>[https://www.britannica.com/topic/common-but-differentiated-responsibilities CBDR - Britannica]</ref>.  

'''Exploit/exploitation:''' To use someone or something unfairly to your own advantage, with a lack of care for the thing that’s being exploited.  

'''Exploit/exploitation:''' To use someone or something unfairly to your own advantage, with a lack of care for the thing that’s being exploited.  

'''Extinction:''' The moment when a kind of organism, usually a species, becomes extinct. Extinction happens when the last remaining individual of the species dies.

'''Extinction:''' The moment when a kind of organism, usually a species, becomes extinct. Extinction happens when the last remaining individual of the species dies.

'''GDP''': Gross domestic product is the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services in a country during a certain period.

'''GDP''': Gross domestic product is the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services in a country during a certain period.

'''Greenland ice sheet:''' The Greenland ice sheet is a vast body of ice covering 1,710,000 square kilometres, roughly 79% of the surface of Greenland. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic ice sheet.  

'''Greenland ice sheet:''' The Greenland ice sheet is a vast body of ice covering 1,710,000 square kilometres, roughly 79% of the surface of Greenland. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic ice sheet.  

'''Greenhouse gases:''' The six greenhouse gases covered by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol are: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydroflurocarbons, perflurocarbons and sulphar hexafluoride.  

'''Greenhouse gases:''' The six greenhouse gases covered by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol are: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydroflurocarbons, perflurocarbons and sulphar hexafluoride.  

'''Indigenous people''': An official definition of “indigenous” has not been adopted by any UN-system body. According to common definition, however, indigenous people are the descendants of those who inhabited a country or a geographical region at the time when people of different cultures or ethnic origins arrived. The new arrivals later became dominant through conquest, occupation, settlement or other means. It is estimated that there are more than 370 million indigenous people spread across 70 countries worldwide<ref>[https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/5session_factsheet1.pdf UN Who are Indigenous people?]</ref>.

'''Indigenous people''': An official definition of “indigenous” has not been adopted by any UN-system body. According to common definition, however, indigenous people are the descendants of those who inhabited a country or a geographical region at the time when people of different cultures or ethnic origins arrived. The new arrivals later became dominant through conquest, occupation, settlement or other means. It is estimated that there are more than 370 million indigenous people spread across 70 countries worldwide<ref name=":24">[https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/5session_factsheet1.pdf UN Forum on Indigenous Issues]</ref>.